NZDUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | 0.88% | 54.6 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 1.21% | 74.8 Pips | |
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| September | -0.39% | -24.4 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
The United States economy showcased a set of significantly positive indicators in recent reports. The Philadelphia Fed reported an increase in the U.S. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey in September, which rose to 1.7 points from a negative -7 points in August. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Labor disclosed a decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims, which fell to 219,000 for the week ending September 14, down from the revised figure of 231,000 from the previous week. The housing market showed an upswing, with building permits rising to 1.475 million in August from a revised 1.406 million in July, and housing starts increasing to 1.356 million from a revised figure of 1.237 million over the same period, according to the Census Bureau. However, this positive sentiment was tempered by the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rate projections, including a drop in the Federal Funds Rate to 5% from 5.5%. Projected rates for the next few years also saw reductions in various terms except for the longer-term projection, which rose slightly to 2.9%.
In contrast, New Zealand’s economic data revealed a downturn. Stats NZ reported that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter contracted by 0.2%, compared to a revised growth of 0.1% in the first quarter. On an annual basis, the 12-month GDP also showed a decline to -0.5% for Q2, down from a revised 0.5% growth in Q1, indicating troubling signs for the New Zealand economy.
The impact on the NZDUSD currency pair was notable. The U.S. economy’s strength, reflected in the manufacturing and labor data combined with improvements in the housing market, paints a fundamentally strong economic backdrop. However, the reduction in interest rate projections by the Federal Reserve could curb potential USD strength. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s disappointing GDP figures highlight economic weaknesses that may undermine investor confidence in the NZD. Despite this, on Thursday, the NZDUSD rose by 0.88% to 0.62389, likely influenced by short-term market adjustments or technical factors rather than fundamentals. Moving forward, the mixed signals from the strong U.S. economic data and lower interest rate projections, along with weak New Zealand GDP data, could lead to volatility in the NZDUSD pair until more consistent trends emerge.
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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?
NZDUSD on Thursday rose 0.88% to 0.62389. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.62781 with break above could target R2 at 0.63174 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.61804 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.62685 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is bullish as the pair continued to trade higher and is up by 1.21% over the past few days.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.63662 |
| R2 | 0.63174 |
| R1 | 0.62781 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.62293 |
| S1 | 0.619 |
| S2 | 0.61412 |
| S3 | 0.61019 |
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