NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.99% to 0.61580. Week ending 2024-10-04 moved lower by -3.02%. What you need to know.

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.99%	-61.3 Pips
Week 2024-10-04	-3.02%	-191.8 Pips
October	-2.95%	-187.3 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 02:00 AM RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Official Cash Rate)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Fri 01:30 PM Producer Price Index (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, various key economic indicators were reported for September. The U.S. unemployment rate saw a slight improvement, decreasing to 4.1% from 4.2% in August, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Moreover, the U-6 measure of labor underutilization decreased to 7.7% from 7.9%. Nonfarm Payroll Employment increased significantly to 254,000 from a previously revised value of 159,000. Average Hourly Earnings over the past month decreased slightly to 0.4% from 0.5%, while the 12-month earnings growth marginally rose to 4% from 3.9%. However, new orders for manufactured goods declined by 0.2% in August, a sharp fall from the revised 4.9% in July as per the Census Bureau. Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 225,000 in the week ending September 28th, while job openings in August rose to 8.04 million from 7.711 million in July.

In New Zealand, the NZIER Business Confidence index for Q3 showed a marked improvement, rising to -1% from -44% in Q2, indicating stronger sentiment among businesses as per NZIER. However, the building consents for new dwellings posted a decline of -5.3% in August compared to the previous month’s revised figure of 26.4%, according to Stats NZ.

These economic developments are key to understanding the dynamics of the NZDUSD currency pair. The recent decrease in unemployment rates and the increase in nonfarm payrolls in the United States indicate a strengthening labor market, potentially leading to more robust economic growth. This could bolster the USD, making it more attractive compared to the NZD. Meanwhile, in New Zealand, while business confidence appears to be on the rise, the sharp fall in building consents adds an element of concern over the construction sector’s demand. The mixed economic signals from New Zealand contrast with the generally positive data from the U.S., leading to the weakening of the Kiwi dollar against the greenback. This may have contributed to the observed 0.99% drop in NZDUSD on Friday, and the 3.02% decrease over the week ending October 4, 2024.

From X (Twitter)

Latest release: Annual number of homes consented down 20 percent.https://t.co/d8fWyDpODA pic.twitter.com/SIMgHYDU74

— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) September 30, 2024

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.99% to 0.62. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-10-04, the pair dropped -3.02% or -191.8 pips lower.

Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.61 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.60 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.63 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.61 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, NZDUSD is down by -2.95% or -187.3 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Powell, Economic Outlook Source: Federal Reserve
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau