GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.03% to 1.30660. Week ending 2024-10-11 moved lower by -0.38%. What you need to know.

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.03%	3.8 Pips
Week 2024-10-11	-0.38%	-50 Pips
October	-2.32%	-310.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 06:00 AM Columbus Day
Tue 07:00 AM Labour Force Survey Employment Change
Wed 07:00 AM Consumer Prices Index (CPI) (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
Fri 07:00 AM Retail Sales Volumes (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, the economic indicators reveal a mixed picture. The University of Michigan reports a decline in consumer sentiment for October, down to 68.9 from 70.1 in September. Furthermore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics states that the Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in September, maintaining a 0% change after a 0.2% rise in August, with the PPI excluding food and energy slightly decreasing. Additionally, initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 258,000 for the week ending October 5, reaching the highest level since August 5, 2023. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) increased by 0.2% for September, maintaining the same rate as in the previous two months, and reflected a 2.4% increase over the past year, marking a slowdown in annual inflation. These indicators suggest that while inflationary pressures remain subdued, there is growing concern over unemployment claims rising.

In the United Kingdom, economic data suggests a positive trend. The country’s GDP for August saw an increase of 0.2% from July’s stagnant figure, according to the Office for National Statistics. This improvement indicates potential stabilization or growth in economic activity, although the extent of recovery remains uncertain given the global economic challenges. Upcoming high-impact events such as the Labour Force Survey Employment Change and the Consumer Prices Index release will provide further insights into the U.K. economic health.

Regarding the GBP/USD currency pair, the current data and upcoming economic events suggest potential volatility. The slight rise of 0.03% to 1.30660 on Friday indicates a relatively stable yet cautious outlook. The U.S.’s stagnant producer prices and rising unemployment claims might create downward pressure on the dollar, benefiting the pound. Conversely, positive GDP growth in the U.K. could bolster the pound ahead of significant econonomic data releases next week. Market participants might closely monitor employment and inflation stats from both countries, impacting GBP/USD movements. The balance of U.S. economic uncertainties against U.K. growth prospects could lead to short-term swings in the exchange rate.

From X (Twitter)

GDP grew 0.2% in August 2024 and 0.2% in the 3 months to August 2024

In August, services grew 0.1%, production grew 0.5% and construction grew 0.4%.

Read more ➡️ https://t.co/EypD1riojP pic.twitter.com/WZLU3UL5vY

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) October 11, 2024

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday rose 0.03% to 1.31. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising in oversold zone. For the week ending 2024-10-11, the pair dropped -0.38% or -50 pips lower.

Looking ahead, GBPUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.30.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.29 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.28 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.31 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.30 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, GBPUSD is down by -2.32% or -310.1 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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