GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.08% to 1.29590. Week ending 2024-10-25 moved lower by -0.72%. What you need to know.

GBPUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.08%	-10 Pips
Week 2024-10-25	-0.72%	-93.6 Pips
October	-3.12%	-417.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Wed 12:30 PM GDP annual rate
Thu 12:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 12:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Fri 12:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

In the United States, the Index of Consumer Sentiment rose in October to 70.5 from 68.9 in September, according to the University of Michigan. The Index of Consumer Expectations stayed constant at 3% during the same period. The Census Bureau reported a decline in U.S. Durable Goods – New Orders to -0.8% in September from 0% in August. However, U.S. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft improved to 0.5% in September, from a revised 0.3% in August. Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation fell to 0.4% from a revised 0.6%, and orders excluding Defense slightly improved from -1.3% to -1.1%. Efficiently, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims reduced to 227,000 for the week ending October 19, dropping from the previously updated figure of 242,000, highlighting an improved labor market scenario.

The United Kingdom experienced a drop in the GfK Consumer Confidence index to -21 in October, down from -20 in September as reported by GfK, indicating a slight decline in consumer sentiment amid ongoing economic challenges.

For GBPUSD, the reported economic data from both the U.S. and UK provide a mixed scenario. The improvement in U.S. nondefense capital goods orders and the drop in unemployment claims signal robust economic activity, potentially strengthening the U.S. dollar. Conversely, the decline in durable goods orders excluding transportation and minor improvement in orders excluding defense present moderate economic signs. With the U.K. consumer confidence slipping, the pound faces downward pressure. Consequently, GBPUSD’s move to its lowest level since August might continue into the upcoming week, especially with the U.S. GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls reports anticipated. A stronger U.S. economy could strengthen the dollar, possibly further weakening GBPUSD unless UK data turns optimistic.

From X (Twitter)

CPI rose by 1.7% in the 12 months to September 2024, down from 2.2% in August 2024.

Read the release ➡️ https://t.co/VlulVDztIW pic.twitter.com/iv83ietkiz

— Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) October 16, 2024

What can we expect from GBPUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

GBPUSD on Friday dropped -0.08% to 1.30. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-10-25, the pair dropped -0.72% or -93.6 pips lower.

Looking ahead, GBPUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.29 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.29 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.30 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.29 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of October, GBPUSD is down by -3.12% or -417.1 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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