Audusd falls 0.26% ahead of key economic data releases in Australia and the US

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	-0.26%	-16.9 Pips
Week to-date	-0.69%	-45.6 Pips
October	-5.18%	-358.3 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Wed 12:30 AM AUD CPI Inflation Rate (3-mth)
Wed 12:30 AM AUD Monthly CPI Indicator (12-mth)
Wed 12:30 AM AUD Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth)
Wed 12:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
Thu 12:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)

What happened lately

In Australia, significant economic indicators are set to be released, which include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate over a three-month period, a Monthly CPI Indicator over twelve months, and the Retail Trade Turnover which is seasonally adjusted for one month. These high-impact events, reported by Economic Recap, are scheduled for Wednesday at 12:30 AM, Australian time. This data will provide insights into the prevailing inflationary trends and consumer spending behavior in Australia. An increase in the CPI figures would reinforce inflationary pressures, potentially prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to consider tightening monetary policy. Conversely, weaker inflation and retail trade figures might suggest an easing environment, affecting future rate expectations.

In the United States, two significant economic events are anticipated. On Wednesday at 12:30 PM, there will be a high-impact report on the GDP annual rate, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, excluding food and energy, scheduled for Thursday at 12:30 PM. These indicators, as noted by Economic Recap, are crucial in understanding the economic growth and inflationary trends in the U.S. economy. If the GDP and PCE figures show robust growth and persistent inflation, it could lead to speculation of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Should the data reveal a slowdown or weaker inflation, it could ease market concerns and impact interest rate expectations in the U.S.

The AUDUSD currency pair saw a decline of 0.26% on Tuesday, closing at 0.65578. Such market movement can be attributed to anticipations concerning the upcoming economic data releases in both Australia and the United States. The impact of Australia’s inflation and retail sales figures on the Australian dollar will depend on whether these indicators align with the market’s expectations and the RBA’s policy stance. Simultaneously, U.S. GDP and PCE figures will influence the U.S. dollar’s strength, affecting the AUDUSD dynamic. If Australian data signals economic resilience while U.S. data indicates moderation, the Australian dollar might regain strength against the U.S. dollar. Conversely, strong U.S. figures combined with weaker Australian data could exert downward pressure on AUDUSD.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Tuesday dropped -0.26% to 0.65578. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Tuesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.65401 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.65223. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.65846 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.65446 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is bearish as the pair posted lower by -0.69%.

Key levels to watch out:

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