USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Wednesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Wednesday | -0.09% | -7.8 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.25% | -22 Pips |  |
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| October | 2.48% | 209.5 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Thu 12:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Fri 07:30 AM CHF Swiss CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) Fri 12:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened lately
The United States experienced a slight deceleration in its economic growth during the third quarter of 2023. The Q3 flash estimate for GDP reported a decrease to 2.8% from 3.0% in Q2, as per the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Furthermore, the GDP Price Index also reflected a slowing pattern, reducing to 1.8% from 2.5% in the previous quarter. On a positive note, pending home sales exhibited a significant surge, increasing by 7.4% in September compared to a modest 0.6% in August. Inflationary pressures appeared to ease as evidenced by the U.S. PCE excluding food and energy prices dropping to 2.2% in Q3, down from 2.8% in Q2. Similarly, the overall PCE Price on a 3-month basis fell to 1.5% from 2.5% in Q2. Meanwhile, the job market showed signs of weakness with a decrease in job openings to 7.443 million in September, from a revised 7.861 million in August, signalling potential labor market softening according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In Switzerland, the ZEW Financial Market Survey for October revealed a slight improvement in financial market sentiment. From a previous score of -8.8 points in September, the index improved to -7.7 points in October. This suggests a slightly better outlook among Swiss financial market experts, although the sentiment remains in negative territory.
The observed economic data from both the U.S. and Switzerland will have implications for the USDCHF currency pair. The softening economic indicators from the U.S., with deceleration in GDP growth, lower inflation readings, and a decrease in job openings, could lead to a weaker USD if investor confidence wavers. The stronger pending home sales figure might provide some support, but overall, the U.S. economy shows signs of moderation. In Switzerland, the slight improvement in financial sentiment might bolster the CHF slightly. As a result, these developments could exert pressure on the USDCHF pair, as seen with its recent marginal drop to 0.86626. Upcoming high-impact economic events, such as the U.S. PCE Price Index figures and nonfarm payroll employment, alongside the Swiss CPI inflation rate, could further influence the USDCHF, highlighting the importance of keeping an eye on these releases.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Wednesday dropped -0.09% to 0.86626. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Wednesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.86463 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.86299. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.86934 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.86535 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.87261 |
| R2 | 0.87097 |
| R1 | 0.86862 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.86698 |
| S1 | 0.86463 |
| S2 | 0.86299 |
| S3 | 0.86064 |
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