EURUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-11-01 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 1.08 | 1.09 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.48% | -52.1 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-11-01 | 0.35% | 37.4 Pips |  |
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| November | -0.47% | -50.9 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 12:00 AM 2024 United States presidential election 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
What happened over the week
In the United States, labor market indicators present mixed results. The U-6 Total labor underutilization measure remained stable at 7.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In contrast, nonfarm payroll employment sharply fell to 12,000 in October due to hurricane effects from 223,000 previously, with revisions for September. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings displayed no change at 0.4% for October. Inflationary pressures slightly eased as the PCE Price Index over a 12-month period decreased to 2.1% in September from August’s 2.2%, showing muted consumer spending trends. Additionally, a decrease in the U.S. GDP for Q3 to 2.8% from 3.0% in Q2 suggests waning economic growth.
In the Euro Area, inflation dynamics are gaining modest traction. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for October’s flash estimate revealed a rise to 2% from 1.7% in September, and the core HICP increased to 0.2%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3% for September (Eurostat). However, the Business Climate Indicator deteriorated to -0.96 points in October, highlighting potential economic headwinds, despite a boost in GDP growth to 0.4% in Q3 from 0.2% in Q2. Furthermore, Germany reported a mixed bag with an uptick in unemployment changes to 27K in October from 17K in September, while retail trade turnover improved to 3.8% year-on-year from August’s 2.1%.
Regarding EURUSD movements, the exchange rate dropped by 0.48% to 1.08340 on Friday after recording a two-week high earlier in the week. Following the first weekly rise in five weeks, it’s evident that Euro’s recovery against the U.S. Dollar amidst divergent economic data has experienced some hesitations. The data around U.S. employment and economic growth adds pressure on the USD, while improving inflation figures in the Eurozone support the Euro. However, upcoming significant events such as the U.S. presidential election and Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision could introduce volatility and influence EURUSD further, potentially overshadowing recent trends as market participants price in economic expectations and policy shifts.
From X (Twitter)
Euro area #inflation expected to be 2.0% in October 2024, up from 1.7% in September. Components: services +3.9%, food, alcohol & tobacco +2.9%, other goods +0.5%, energy -4.6% – flash estimate https://t.co/sgfZmd9uBx pic.twitter.com/XkLarms4To
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) October 31, 2024
Payroll employment essentially unchanged in October (+12,000); jobless rate holds at 4.1%
https://t.co/ZwrVfLviqL #JobsReport #BLSdata— BLS-Labor Statistics (@BLS_gov) November 1, 2024
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.48% to 1.08. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-11-01, the pair rose 0.35% or 37.4 pips higher.
Looking ahead, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.09 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.08. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.08 or 1.08 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.09 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of November, EURUSD is down by -0.47% or -50.9 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.10 |
| R2 | 1.10 |
| R1 | 1.09 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.08 |
| S1 | 1.08 |
| S2 | 1.07 |
| S3 | 1.06 |
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In August 2024, manufacturing turnover bounced back (+1.9%) Source: INSEE
Euro area annual inflation up to 2.0% Source: Eurostat Euro area unemployment at 6.3% Source: Eurostat
Personal Income and Outlays, September 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Isabel Schnabel: The ECB’s monetary policy: towards price stability Source: European Central Bank In September 2024, cereal and oilseed producer prices bounced back year on year Source: INSEE In August 2024, services output sped up sharply (+2.4%) Source: INSEE In September 2024, the industrial producer prices fell by 0.2% over a month and by 5.8% over a year Source: INSEE In October 2024, consumer prices increased by 1.2% year on year Source: INSEE In August 2024, sales volume in trade bounced back by 1.6% Source: INSEE GDP up by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Inflation rate in October 2024 expected to be +2.0% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) Gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2024 was 0.2% higher than in the previous quarter Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Source: Census Bureau Rental Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau Household consumption of goods slowed down in September 2024 (+0.1% after +0.4%) Source: INSEE GDP accelerated slightly in Q3 2024 (+0.4% after +0.2%) Source: INSEE Household real consumption per capita increases in both euro area and EU Source: Eurostat Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy and financial stability in the euro area Source: European Central Bank