NZDUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-11-01 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.22% | -12.9 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-11-01 | -0.27% | -16 Pips |  |
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| November | -0.22% | -13.2 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 12:00 AM 2024 United States presidential election
Tue 09:45 PM Employment Change 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
What happened over the week
In the United States, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports mixed labor market data for October, with Nonfarm Payroll Employment decreasing significantly to 12,000, influenced by hurricane disruptions. The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings showed no change, holding steady at a 0.4% increase from September. The U-6 Total labor underutilization measure stayed the same at 7.7%, while the total alternative measure saw an unusual spike to 40%, indicating potential reporting issues. These conditions suggest a slowing labor market, potentially affecting future economic growth. Meanwhile, the GDP flash estimate for Q3 dipped slightly to 2.8% from 3.0% in Q2, alongside a decline in the PCE Price Index to 1.5% over the same period. Analyst concerns about cooling economic momentum are further heightened by a decrease in job openings to 7.443 million in September from August’s revised 7.861 million.
In New Zealand, Stats NZ reports a positive shift in the construction sector as building consents for new dwellings rise by 2.6% in September, recovering from a -5.2% contraction in August. This rebound suggests a potential boost in the construction industry and could signal strength in the domestic economy. However, New Zealand’s labor market and economic performance remain under close observation, with significant events such as Employment Change figures expected soon.
The recent downward trend in NZDUSD, with the pair reaching an 11-week low of 0.59630, reflects a persistent weakening of the New Zealand dollar against its U.S. counterpart. This movement is influenced by the mixed economic signals from both countries, including weaker U.S. labor data that might suggest a cautious economic outlook. Markets are also bracing for high-impact upcoming events, like the U.S. presidential election and Federal Reserve interest rate decision, both of which could introduce increased volatility. The downward trajectory may continue if New Zealand’s upcoming employment data fails to inspire confidence among investors or if the U.S. data releases suggest a stronger economic recovery or hawkish monetary policies.
From X (Twitter)
Latest release: Stand-alone house consents up in the September 2024 quarter.https://t.co/Qe6vJAhDPR pic.twitter.com/pLHIPVMXUJ
— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) October 31, 2024
What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.22% to 0.60. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-11-01, the pair dropped -0.27% or -16 pips lower.
Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.60 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.60. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.59 or 0.59 (WS1) as immediate support level. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.59 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of November, NZDUSD is down by -0.22% or -13.2 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.61 |
| R2 | 0.60 |
| R1 | 0.60 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.60 |
| S1 | 0.59 |
| S2 | 0.59 |
| S3 | 0.59 |
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