USDCAD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-11-01 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.40 |
| Performance | ||||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | |||
| Friday | 0.15% | 20.2 Pips |  |
|||
| Week 2024-11-01 | 0.39% | 54.4 Pips |  November |
0.14% | 19.3 Pips | |
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 12:00 AM 2024 United States presidential election 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
Fri 01:30 PM Labour Force Net Change in Employment
What happened over the week
In the United States, labor data showed mixed signals for October. The U-6 total labor underutilization rate remained stable at 7.7%, but the alternative measure surged to 40%. The average hourly earnings for October stayed constant at 0.4%, with annual earnings growth subtly revised to 4%. Nonfarm payroll employment experienced a notable decrease to 12,000, partly due to hurricanes, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. Meanwhile, the US GDP in Q3 saw a slight deceleration to 2.8%, down from 3.0% in Q2, and personal income increased to 0.3% in September. Additionally, the PCE Price Index for September over 12 months slightly weakened to 2.1%. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims saw an improvement, dropping to 216,000, the Department of Labor reported.
In Canada, the economy showed signs of stagnation with GDP in August recording no growth, a downturn from a revised 0.1% in July. This suggests potential slowdowns in economic momentum which Statistics Canada highlighted, as the previous growth figures were also adjusted downwards.
The USD/CAD exchange rate movement reflects these economic updates, closing the week with a 0.39% rise, reaching a 2-year high. This increase indicates sustained strength for the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, influenced by the recent US economic data suggesting a cooler economy with mixed employment and earnings metrics, yet some improvement in unemployment claims. The lack of growth in Canada’s GDP adds to the loonie’s depreciation, making the US dollar more attractive to investors. Upcoming high-impact events such as the United States presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision could further influence the USD/CAD dynamics, especially if the Fed policies or political outcomes signal stronger economic growth or increased economic activity. These events are pivotal to watch as they hold potential to either reinforce the current trend or reverse it, based on market reactions and economic indications conveyed.
From X (Twitter)
We have lowered our policy interest rate to 3.75%.
Learn more: https://t.co/aUmYh7ac0e#economy #cdnecon pic.twitter.com/wGx8QasZwf
— Bank of Canada (@bankofcanada) October 23, 2024
What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCAD on Friday rose 0.15% to 1.40. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-11-01, the pair rose 0.39% or 54.4 pips higher.
Looking ahead, USDCAD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 1.40 (WR1) with break above could target 1.40 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 1.39 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.40 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of November, USDCAD is up by 0.14% or 19.3 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.41 |
| R2 | 1.40 |
| R1 | 1.40 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.39 |
| S1 | 1.39 |
| S2 | 1.38 |
| S3 | 1.38 |
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