USDCHF Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-11-01 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.86 | 0.87 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.68% | 58.7 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-11-01 | 0.11% | 9.4 Pips |  |
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| November | 0.7% | 60.7 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 12:00 AM 2024 United States presidential election 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
What happened over the week
The economic indicators from the United States paint a mixed picture for October. The U-6 Total labor underutilization figure remained stable at 7.7%, while the unemployment rate also held steady at 4.1%. Nonetheless, there were significant challenges, notably in Nonfarm Payroll Employment which plummeted to 12,000 due to the impact of hurricanes, a drastic decline from the previous 223,000. Furthermore, average hourly earnings showed no increased growth, remaining at 0.4% month-on-month. On a more positive note, the U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims experienced a drop to 216,000 from 227,000, reflecting some improvement in the job market. However, the GDP figures for Q3 came in weaker than anticipated, with a decrease to 2.8% from 3.0% in Q2, indicating a slowing economic momentum. PCE-related data pointed to slight decreases in inflationary pressures, both in the overall and core twelve-month figures, maintaining at 2.1% and 2.7% respectively. These results showcase a multifaceted scenario marked by stalling employment recovery, restrained inflation, and fluctuations in household consumption.
For Switzerland, the economic environment has somewhat improved. The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate showed a milder decline than in the previous month, improving to -0.1% in October from -0.3% in September. This deflationary environment may indicate consumer price stabilization, although the inflation rate went down to 0.6% from 0.8%. Retail trade real turnover saw an increase of 2.2% in September, albeit this growth was lower than the 3.2% reported in August. The ZEW Financial Market Survey highlighted a slight uplift to -7.7 points from -8.8 points, suggesting marginal improvement in economic sentiment. These indicators show a slow, positive trend in Switzerland’s economic conditions, particularly in price stability and consumer sentiment, despite some lingering deflationary pressures.
The fluctuations in USDCHF can be attributed to these economic developments. The U.S.’s slowing economic indicators, alongside robust employment figures from Switzerland, might have bolstered the Swiss franc earlier in the session before the recovery of USDCHF to an 11-week high. As economic participants digest these figures, the anticipation of upcoming events, such as the U.S. presidential election, further influences forecasts. Decisions regarding Fed Interest Rates can also profoundly impact USD movement. This environment suggests potential volatility for USDCHF, where broader geopolitical events and macroeconomic announcements will likely guide currency performance in the coming sessions.
From X (Twitter)
In September, Swiss inflation weakened to the slowest pace in more than three years, pointing to further monetary easing by the country’s central bank. #Swiss #Switzerland https://t.co/kRkXHQk971
— swissinfo.ch (@swissinfo_en) October 4, 2024
What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCHF on Friday rose 0.68% to 0.87. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-11-01, the pair rose 0.11% or 9.4 pips higher.
Looking ahead, USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.87 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.87. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.86 or 0.86 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.87 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of November, USDCHF is up by 0.7% or 60.7 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.88 |
| R2 | 0.88 |
| R1 | 0.87 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.87 |
| S1 | 0.86 |
| S2 | 0.86 |
| S3 | 0.86 |
You might also be interested in:
Swiss Consumer Price Index in October 2024 – Consumer prices fell by 0.1% in October Source: Federal Statistical Office Swiss retail trade turnover rose by 1.0% in September 2024 Source: Federal Statistical Office
Personal Income and Outlays, September 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Source: Census Bureau Rental Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau