USDJPY on Friday rose 0.58% to 152.95. Week ending 2024-11-01 moved lower by 0%. What happened.

USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.58%	88.3 Pips
Week 242024-11-01	0%	-0.6 Pips
November	0.44%	67 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 12:00 AM 2024 United States presidential election
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)

What happened over the week

In the United States, the economic landscape in October showed mixed signals. The U-6 Total labor underutilization measure remained steady at 7.7%, while nonfarm payroll employment sharply decreased to 12,000, a significant drop from 223,000 affected by hurricanes. The unemployment rate was stable at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings increased to 4% on a yearly basis. September’s Personal Income improved slightly to 0.3%, but consumer spending saw a slight decrease. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index also showed mixed results, with the headline index decreasing year-on-year but edging up monthly. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose slightly. Initial jobless claims fell, indicating some labor market strength. However, the Employment Cost Index fell to 0.8% in Q3. U.S. GDP growth in Q3 was revised lower to 2.8%, with a decrease in both the GDP Price Index and PCE Price. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported a decline in job openings in September. Sources for these data include the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In Japan, the economy presented signals of deceleration in September. The Bank of Japan maintained its Short-Term Policy Interest Rate at 0.25%, indicating a steady monetary approach. Retail performance was disappointing, with retail trade data dropping significantly to -2.3% from a revised 1%. Large retailer sales also decreased compared to August. However, Japan’s unemployment rate showed a minor improvement, falling to 2.4% from 2.5%. These figures indicate challenges in consumer spending and retail sales despite a strong labor market. Data sources include the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, and the Statistics Bureau of Japan.

The mixed economic data from the United States and Japan are reflected in the recent movement of the USDJPY exchange rate, which rose by 0.58% to 152.95000, reaching a 13-week high. Despite this increase, the USD ended a four-week upward streak against the yen. The market may be anticipating key events such as the upcoming U.S. presidential election and a Federal Reserve Interest Rate decision, which could heighten volatility and influence market sentiment towards the USDJPY pair. The steadiness in Japan’s monetary policy amidst poor retail performance may put pressure on the yen, while uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic indicators might lead to fluctuating demand for the USD, impacting the currency pair’s trajectory.

From social media

The BOJ released the Statement on Monetary Policy after the October 30 and 31 Monetary Policy Meeting.https://t.co/bmgORqQWF0 pic.twitter.com/icDT4UGUC4

— Bank of Japan (@Bank_of_Japan_e) October 31, 2024

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday rose 0.58% to 152.95. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending ,2024-11-01, the pair dropped 0% or -0.6 pips lower.

Looking ahead, USDJPY looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 153.84 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 152.85. On the downside, we are looking at week low 151.78 or 151.87 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDJPY need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 151.78 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, USDJPY is up by 0.44% or 67 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Personal Income and Outlays, September 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Statement on Monetary Policy Source: Bank of Japan
Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership Source: Census Bureau
Rental Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau
Trade Statistics (First 10 Days of October 2024 [Provisional]) Source: Ministry of Finance
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau