AUDUSD rises amid mixed economic signals from Australia and the US

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Tuesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Tuesday	0.44%	28.8 Pips
Week to-date	0.35%	23.3 Pips
November	0.76%	49.9 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Thu 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)

What happened lately

In Australia, the economic landscape seems a bit uncertain with mixed signals. The AiG Industry Index, a measure of industry performance, dropped significantly in October to -28.8 points from -18.6 in September. This suggests a decline in industrial activity, potentially indicating challenges in the manufacturing and services sectors. However, on the monetary policy front, the Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained the Cash Rate Target at 4.35%, which suggests a cautious approach amidst these signals. This decision may reflect the central bank’s wait-and-see strategy given the current economic conditions. Meanwhile, inflation, as indicated by TD Securities, is showing signs of picking up with a 12-month increase to 3% in October from 2.6% in September. This rising inflation rate could put pressure on the central bank’s future decisions regarding interest rates if it continues upward.

In the United States, data from the Census Bureau reveals an incremental improvement in new orders for manufactured goods. The figures show a less severe decline of -0.5% in September compared to a revised -0.8% in August. While still negative, this slight improvement may hint at a gradual stabilization in the manufacturing sector, reflecting resilience in demand amidst broader global economic uncertainties.

The rise in AUDUSD by 0.44% to 0.66270 reflects market sentiment towards Australia’s economic data and its potential impact on the currency market. Despite the drop in the AiG Industry Index, the Australian dollar has been buoyed somewhat by the stable interest rates and increasing inflation which could imply future rate hikes if inflation pressures build. Traders may anticipate this possibility as part of their strategy, favoring the AUD’s prospects against the USD. However, with a high-impact Fed Interest Rate Decision on the horizon, fluctuations are likely as investors adjust their positions based on expectations of U.S. monetary policy moves. The FED’s decision will be scrutinized for any indications of policy shifts, which could further influence the AUDUSD exchange rate in the coming days.

Latest from X (Twitter)

Tweets by Australian Bureau of Statistics

What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Tuesday rose 0.44% to 0.66270. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Tuesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.66529 with break above could target R2 at 0.66787 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.65784 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.66415 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

#AUDUSD Trending on Twitter

[custom-twitter-feeds hashtag=”#AUDUSD” num=3 showheader=false]