EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | 0.72% | 76.7 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.7% | -76.2 Pips |  |
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| November | -0.81% | -87.8 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to lower the Federal Funds Rate to 4.75% from its previous level of 5% suggests a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance. This comes amid a drop in Unit Labor Costs to 2.4% in the third quarter, as revised by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Additionally, initial unemployment claims rose slightly to 221,000, exceeding previous figures. Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity also saw a marginal decline from 2.5% in Q2 to 2.2% in Q3. These mixed indicators highlight some moderation in labor market strength and productivity growth, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions in the U.S.
In the Euro Area, retail trade turnover on an annual basis saw a positive increase to 2.9% in September, up from a revised 2.4% in August, according to Eurostat. However, monthly retail trade turnover edged down to 0.5% from 1.1%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) indicated a decline both annually and monthly, reflecting a decrease in inflationary pressure in the region. Meanwhile, Germany’s industrial production displayed a concerning trend, with a noticeable drop both in non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted figures, as reported by Destatis. However, new manufacturing orders in Germany showed improvement, marking a positive shift in the sector.
The recent economic data from both the United States and the Euro Area have various implications for the EURUSD currency pair. The Fed’s decision to cut interest rates alongside stagnant productivity and rising unemployment claims could exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Conversely, while the Euro Area experienced some growth in retail trade turnover, the decline in the Producer Price Index and weak industrial production in Germany could weigh on the euro. However, the positive trend in new manufacturing orders in Germany could provide some support to the euro. As a result, EURUSD could experience volatility as markets digest these mixed signals, with potential upward momentum depending on the perceived future economic outlook in the Euro Area relative to the U.S. Overall, the recent rise of 0.72% to 1.07983 suggests current market sentiment may be leaning slightly in favor of the euro, although upcoming economic data releases will be critical in determining the next significant movement.
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What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Thursday rose 0.72% to 1.07983. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 1.08445 with break above could target R2 at 1.08907 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 1.07125 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 1.08247 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.09567 |
| R2 | 1.08907 |
| R1 | 1.08445 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.07785 |
| S1 | 1.07323 |
| S2 | 1.06663 |
| S3 | 1.06201 |
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