EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.6% to 1.07179. Week ending 2024-11-08 moved lower by -1.44%. What you need to know.

EURUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.6%	-64.9 Pips
Week 2024-11-08	-1.44%	-156.6 Pips
November	-1.55%	-168.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 05:00 AM Veterans Day
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Thu 08:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech
Fri 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, several key economic indicators have been reported. The Index of Consumer Sentiment showed an improvement, rising to 73 points in November from 70.5 points in October, according to data from the University of Michigan. The Federal Reserve has announced a decrease in the Federal Funds Rate to 4.75% from 5%, which might indicate a response to moderate economic activity. Furthermore, preliminary estimates revealed a decrease in Unit Labor Costs for Q3 to 2.4%, revised significantly upward from a previous 0.4%, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Additionally, initial unemployment insurance claims slightly increased to 221,000 for the week ending November 2 according to the Department of Labor, while nonfarm business labor productivity decreased to 2.2% in Q3 from 2.5% previously. The Census Bureau noted that new orders for manufactured goods adjusted to -0.5%, better than the revised -0.8% from August.

In the Euro Area, retail trade turnover in September increased by 2.9% on a 12-month basis, as disclosed by Eurostat, despite a decline on a month-over-month basis to 0.5% from 1.1% in August. In Germany, industrial production fell significantly by both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted measures, reflected in decreases to -4.6% and -2.5% respectively for the same month (Federal Statistical Office). On a positive note, new manufacturing orders in Germany rose to 1% non-adjusted, with seasonally adjusted data showing a significant uptick of 4.2% in September. Conversely, the Euro Area observed a decline in the Producer Price Index to -3.4% in September, with a month-over-month change also dropping to -0.6%.

Recent movements in EURUSD have been notably influenced by economic data and political events. Following Donald Trump’s election as the U.S. President, the Euro dropped to a five-month low against the Dollar, exacerbated by weaker performance against Sterling. The reported economic metrics from both the United States and the Euro Area contribute to this currency fluctuation, reflecting a tug-of-war between improving U.S. sentiment and deteriorating European production figures. The anticipated U.S. CPI inflation and PPI data, along with the Euro Area GDP report, are likely to further influence EURUSD dynamics in upcoming sessions, affecting trader sentiment and currency value against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions and economic outlook.

From X (Twitter)

Euro area #RetailTrade up by 0.5% in September 2024 over August 2024, up by 2.9% compared with September 2023 https://t.co/a6lqUDOyZA pic.twitter.com/ujbGQSmsf4

— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) November 7, 2024

Federal Open Market Committee statement: https://t.co/60DDKwtaQA #FOMC

— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) November 7, 2024

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.6% to 1.07. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-11-08, the pair dropped -1.44% or -156.6 pips lower.

Looking ahead, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.06 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.05 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.09 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.07 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, EURUSD is down by -1.55% or -168.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Volume of retail trade up by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve
Luis de Guindos: Economic developments and monetary policy in the euro area Source: European Central Bank
In Q3 2024, private payroll employment was virtually stable Source: INSEE
Industrial producer prices down by 0.6% in both the euro area and the EU Source: Eurostat
Isabel Schnabel: The ECB’s monetary policy: towards price stability Source: European Central Bank
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
In September 2024, manufacturing output fell back (‑0.8%) Source: INSEE