NZDUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-11-08 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.74% | -44.6 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-11-08 | -0.35% | -20.9 Pips |  |
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| November | -0.08% | -5 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 05:00 AM Veterans Day 
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) Thu 08:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech Fri 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
What happened over the week
In the United States, a series of economic events have shaped the current market environment. The University of Michigan reported an increase in consumer sentiment to 73 points in November, a positive shift from October’s 70.5 points. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve lowered the Federal Funds Rate to 4.75% from 5%, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy approach. Bureau of Labor Statistics data revealed a decrease in preliminary Unit Labor Costs for Q3 to 2.4% from the previously revised 0.4%, alongside a decline in Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity to 2.2%. Contrarily, initial unemployment claims slightly rose to 221,000, indicating marginal labor market strain. Furthermore, Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race could lead to shifts in fiscal and regulatory policies. U.S. new orders for manufactured goods slightly improved to -0.5% in September, showing a gradual yet fragile recovery in industrial demand.
In New Zealand, recent economic indicators point to a weakening labor market. Stats NZ reported a decrease in employment change to -0.5% in Q3 from 0.4% in Q2, alongside a drop in the Labour Force Participation Rate to 71.2% from 71.7%. The Labour Cost Index also declined to 0.6% from 0.9% in the previous quarter. The unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in Q3 from 4.6% in Q2, depicting rising challenges in the labor sector. These factors collectively suggest a slowing economy, potentially impacting inflation and monetary policy outlooks.
The recent data and developments have had a significant impact on the NZDUSD currency pair. The pair dipped by 0.74% to 0.59665, with the week ending marking a 0.35% decline, hitting a 13-week low before rebounding to a 2-week high. The mixed performance underscores volatility driven by contrasting economic signals from both nations. The softer U.S. labor cost and productivity data, coupled with a dip in interest rates, generally exerted downward pressure on the dollar. However, concerns over New Zealand’s deteriorating employment figures and lower labor cost growth added pressure on the New Zealand dollar, leading to fluctuations. Upcoming U.S. economic events such as CPI inflation data and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could further influence the pair, with high-impact implications for the dollar’s strength and market sentiment.
From X (Twitter)
Latest release: Unemployment rate at 4.8 percent.https://t.co/9tYKITNMqQ pic.twitter.com/jgR6uuvRTP
— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) November 5, 2024
What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.74% to 0.60. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-11-08, the pair dropped -0.35% or -20.9 pips lower.
Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.60 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.60. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.59 or 0.59 (WS1) as immediate support level. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.59 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of November, NZDUSD is down by -0.08% or -5 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.62 |
| R2 | 0.61 |
| R1 | 0.60 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.60 |
| S1 | 0.59 |
| S2 | 0.58 |
| S3 | 0.58 |
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