NZDUSD Analysis
| Performance after Monday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Monday | -0.08% | -4.5 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.1% | -6.2 Pips | |
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| November | -0.13% | -7.6 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 01:30 PM USD CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
What happened lately
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently reported that the Survey of Inflation Expectations for the fourth quarter experienced an upward revision, climbing to 2.12% from the previous third-quarter figure of 2.03%. This indicates an increase in anticipated inflation levels in New Zealand, which signals stronger inflation expectations among businesses and consumers. Higher inflation expectations often suggest that the central bank may need to consider tightening monetary policy to keep inflation in check, with possibilities of increasing interest rates to curb inflationary pressures.
In the United States, anticipation is building for significant upcoming economic data. On Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate, which measures the annual inflation level, is scheduled to be released. This event, marked as high impact, could provide crucial insights into the inflation trajectory of the U.S. economy, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions moving forward.
Regarding the NZD/USD currency pair, the exchange rate saw a minor drop of 0.08% to settle at 0.59639. The pair is currently in a state of consolidation, meaning that it is not exhibiting a strong trend in either direction. The recent increase in New Zealand’s inflation expectations as reported by RBNZ suggests potential upward pressure on the NZD as markets might anticipate future rate hikes to combat inflation. However, this upward momentum could be moderated by the anticipated U.S. CPI data release. If the data shows a higher-than-expected inflation rate in the U.S., it could bolster the USD as it may lead to assumptions of more aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. Thus, the NZD/USD exchange rate remains in a delicate balance, influenced by an interplay of domestic inflation expectations in New Zealand and incoming inflation data from the U.S.
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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?
NZDUSD on Monday dropped -0.08% to 0.59639. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 0.59511 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 0.59773 or trades above daily pivot 0.59642. Break above could target R1 at 0.5977. While to the downside, we are looking at 0.59511 (S1) and daily low of 0.59514 as support levels. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 0.59514 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.60029 |
| R2 | 0.59901 |
| R1 | 0.5977 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.59642 |
| S1 | 0.59511 |
| S2 | 0.59383 |
| S3 | 0.59252 |
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