AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.07% to 0.64597. Week ending 2024-11-15 moved lower by -1.9%. What you need to know.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.07%	4.2 Pips
Week 2024-11-15	-1.9%	-124.9 Pips
November	-1.78%	-117.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 12:30 AM RBA Meeting Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

What happened over the week

In the United States, there has been a noticeable slowdown in retail trade for October which recorded a growth of only 0.4%, down from a revised 0.8% in September, according to the Census Bureau. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) indicated some inflationary pressure by increasing to 0.2% in October from 0% the previous month, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Furthermore, the 12-month PPI showed an increase to 2.4% from a revised 1.9%, with the core PPI rising slightly to 3.1% from 2.9%. As noted by the Department of Labor, initial unemployment insurance claims improved slightly, dropping to 217,000 from a previous 221,000. Meanwhile, CPI data reveals a stable inflation rate with minor changes, as the overall US CPI remained steady month-on-month at 0.2%, while 12-month CPI inflation excluding food and energy remained unchanged at 3.3%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures.

In Australia, labor market indicators showed a weakening tone. As per the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate held at 4.1% in October, yet the participation rate edged lower to 67.1% from 67.2%. The employment change figures showed a significant drop from 61.3k to 15.9k, with a notable decrease in full-time employment numbers from 48.8k to 9.7k, signaling potential labor market slack. Australia’s Wage Price Index remained steady at a quarterly pace of 0.8%, indicating no upward pressure on wages during the third quarter.

The AUD/USD currency pair, which saw a slight uptick of 0.07% on the past Friday, experienced an overall decline of 1.9% for the week, hitting a 14-week low. The economic events highlight a mixed outlook with stronger inflationary data in the U.S. and weaker labor market performance in Australia, which may maintain or increase pressure on the AUDUSD pair. However, upcoming events like the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes could provide further insight, potentially offering relief or additional pressure based on future monetary policy directions. Expectation of continued U.S. economic stability, with moderate inflation pressures, could further weigh on the AUDUSD unless Australian economic data provides a compelling counterbalance.

From X (Twitter)

“With employment rising by around 16,000 people and the number of unemployed up by around 8,000, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 per cent," Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics

For more, see https://t.co/am1Njhycgb pic.twitter.com/vHnIjpUQ7u

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) November 14, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.07% to 0.65. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2024-11-15, the pair dropped -1.9% or -124.9 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.64.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.64 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.64 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.66 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.64 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, AUDUSD is down by -1.78% or -117.1 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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