NZDUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-11-15 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.26% | 15.4 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-11-15 | -1.74% | -104 Pips |  |
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| November | -1.83% | -109.2 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
What happened over the week
In the United States, October witnessed a decline in retail trade growth, with a drop to 0.4% from a revised 0.8% in September, as reported by the Census Bureau. This slowdown in consumer spending is contrasted by the rising Producer Price Index (PPI), which increased to 0.2% in October from 0% in September, as per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The 12-month PPI also rose to 2.4% from 1.9%, indicating increasing costs for producers. Notably, the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 3.1% over a year, up from 2.9%. Meanwhile, initial unemployment claims for the week ending November 9 saw a decrease to 217,000 from 221,000 claims, according to the Department of Labor. This suggests a stable job market. Additionally, the consumer price index (CPI) saw a steady monthly gain of 0.2% and maintained an annual inflation rate of 2.6%, up from 2.4%, showing consistent consumer price strengthening.
In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reported an increase in inflation expectations for the fourth quarter, rising to 2.12% from the previous 2.03%. This upward adjustment suggests that anticipation of inflationary pressure is gaining ground in New Zealand, contributing to potential shifts in future monetary policy as authorities aim to manage inflation levels effectively.
The NZDUSD currency pair has been significantly affected by these economic events, with the pair rising by 0.26% to 0.58640 on Friday. However, over the week ending November 15, it experienced a decline of 1.74%, hitting a 12-month low. This downward pressure on the NZD is likely driven by contrasting economic conditions between the United States and New Zealand. The stronger inflation numbers in the U.S. compared to New Zealand’s persistently lower expectations could result in a more hawkish Federal Reserve relative to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, potentially widening interest rate differentials and putting downward pressure on NZDUSD. Additionally, the stability in U.S. unemployment claims suggests resilience in the labor market, further supporting the U.S. dollar against the Kiwi.
From X (Twitter)
Latest release: Unemployment rate at 4.8 percent.https://t.co/9tYKITNMqQ pic.twitter.com/jgR6uuvRTP
— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) November 5, 2024
What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
NZDUSD on Friday rose 0.26% to 0.59. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling in oversold zone. For the week ending 2024-11-15, the pair dropped -1.74% or -104 pips lower.
Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.58.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.58 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.58 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.60 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.58 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of November, NZDUSD is down by -1.83% or -109.2 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.61 |
| R2 | 0.60 |
| R1 | 0.59 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.59 |
| S1 | 0.58 |
| S2 | 0.58 |
| S3 | 0.57 |
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Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau Business Formation Statistics Source: Census Bureau Personal Income by County and Metropolitan Area, 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Powell, Economic Outlook Source: Federal Reserve