AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.14% to 0.65009. Week ending 2024-11-22 rose 0.58%. What happened.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.14%	-9.4 Pips
Week 2024-11-22	0.58%	37.5 Pips
November	-1.15%	-75.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wed 12:30 AM Monthly CPI Indicator (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Wed 01:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM GDP annual rate
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day

What happened over the week

In the United States, there has been a general decrease in consumer sentiment and housing activity, alongside mixed employment data. The University of Michigan reported that the U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 71.8 points in November from 73 in October, while the Index of Consumer Expectations showed a minor increase to 3.2% from 3.1%. Economic conditions appear challenged as the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey significantly dropped to -5.5 points from 10.3, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity. On the employment front, initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 213,000 from a previous revised figure of 219,000, suggesting a slight improvement in the labor market according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Housing data revealed a downturn, with October’s housing starts decreasing to 1.311 million from a revised 1.353 million in September, and building permits falling to -0.6 million from a revised 1.425 million. These figures from the Census Bureau highlight a slowing housing market, emphasizing the economic softness.

The recent developments in the U.S., particularly weak manufacturing and mixed consumer sentiment data, have implications for the AUDUSD currency pair. Despite a slight week-on-week rise of 0.58%, the pair recorded a marginal drop of 0.14% to 0.65009. The mixed U.S. economic data could make the U.S. dollar less attractive, potentially providing support to the Australian dollar if Australia’s economic releases outperform expectations. The upcoming high-impact events, including U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes and Australia’s CPI data, will be crucial in setting the tone for the currency movement. The market will be closely observing these releases for cues on monetary policy direction and inflation trajectories. In the context of a broader trading pattern, the AUDUSD remains range-bound with an inside-bar pattern, indicating that traders might await fresh impetus from these economic reports to decide the direction of the trend.

From X (Twitter)

The Minutes of the November 2024 Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board has been released: https://t.co/ojFiAzXy1g pic.twitter.com/3ivLyevszW

— Reserve Bank of Australia (@RBAInfo) November 19, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.14% to 0.65. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-11-22, the pair rose 0.58% or 37.5 pips higher.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.65.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.65 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.65. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.65 or 0.65 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.65 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of November, AUDUSD is down by -1.15% or -75.9 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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