Forex

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.5% to 1.04174. Week ending 2024-11-22 moved lower by -1.1%. What you need to know.

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.5% to 1.04174. Week ending 2024-11-22 moved lower by -1.1%. What you need to know.
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.5% to 1.04174. Week ending 2024-11-22 moved lower by -1.1%. What you need to know.

EURUSD Analysis

Week Ending 2024-11-22
Open High Low Close
1.06 1.06 1.03 1.04
Performance
Period Pct Chg Momentum
Friday -0.5% -51.9 Pips
Week 2024-11-22 -1.1% -116.3 Pips
November -4.31% -468.7 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Wed 01:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM GDP annual rate
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day
Thu 01:00 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In November, the United States witnessed a decline in consumer sentiment, with the University of Michigan reporting a drop to 71.8 points from the previous 73 points in October. However, consumer expectations rose slightly to 3.2%. The U.S. also saw a decrease in housing starts, falling to 1.311 million in October from a revised 1.353 million in September, alongside a decline in building permits. The U.S. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey also plummeted to -5.5 points, reflecting weakening industrial sentiment. Meanwhile, initial unemployment claims decreased, signaling some resilience in the labor market.

Germany’s economic indicators presented mixed signals. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that GDP growth dropped to 0.1% in Q3, down from 0.2% in Q2, highlighting a slowdown. However, producer price indexes showed improvement, with an increase in the Producer Price Index to 0.2% in October, and a year-over-year improvement to -1.1% from -1.4% in September. These figures suggest slight upward pressure on prices despite overall economic sluggishness.

The Euro Area saw a marginal improvement in consumer confidence with the index climbing slightly to -12.4 points from -12.5 points. The Eurostat reported that the core harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in October remained unchanged at 2.7%. This stability in inflation indicators reflects a consistent, albeit slow, economic environment across the Eurozone.

For the EURUSD currency pair, recent economic reports and expectations might continue exerting pressure. The disappointing consumer sentiment and industrial outlook from the U.S., coupled with weaker-than-expected GDP data from Germany, likely contributed to the EURUSD dropping to 1.04174. The pair has experienced a decline for the third consecutive week. It’s anticipated that EURUSD might remain under pressure, especially if upcoming high-impact U.S. economic events such as the FOMC Meeting Minutes and PCE Price Index reflect further economic strength or guidance in the U.S., potentially leading to a stronger dollar. Conversely, any adverse developments or dovish guidance from these events could provide some respite for the euro relative to the dollar.

From X (Twitter)

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.5% to 1.04. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-11-22, the pair dropped -1.1% or -116.3 pips lower.

Looking ahead, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.03.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.03 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.02 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.06 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.03 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, EURUSD is down by -4.31% or -468.7 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

R3 1.09
R2 1.07
R1 1.06
Weekly Pivot 1.05
S1 1.03
S2 1.02
S3 1.00

You might also be interested in:

Quarterly Services Survey Source: Census Bureau
In October 2024, energy and imported raw material prices rebounded Source: INSEE
In November 2024, the business climate in manufacturing industry has partially rebounded Source: INSEE
Gross Domestic Product for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, 2021 and 2022 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
In November 2024, the business climate in wholesale trade has retreated Source: INSEE
In November 2024, the business climate has slightly declined in retail trade and in trade and repair of motor vehicles Source: INSEE
In November 2024, the business climate in building construction has darkened Source: INSEE
In November 2024, the business climate in France has darkened again Source: INSEE
In November 2024, the business climate in services has retreated Source: INSEE
Production in construction down by 0.1% in both the euro area and the EU Source: Eurostat
Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account, U.S. and States, 2023 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Moderate rebound in business creations in October 2024 Source: INSEE
Annual inflation up to 2.0% in the euro area Source: Eurostat
New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Quarterly Financial Report Source: Census Bureau
In Q3 2024, collective tourist attendance decreased by 1.7% over a year Source: INSEE
Euro area international trade in goods surplus €12.5 bn Source: Eurostat
Philip R. Lane: The 2021-2022 inflation surges and the monetary policy response through the lens of macroeconomic models Source: European Central Bank
Reassessing monetary policy tools in a rapidly changing world Source: European Central Bank

Shares:

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *