NZDUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-11-22 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.39% | -22.6 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-11-22 | -0.48% | -28.4 Pips |  |
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| November | -2.29% | -136.7 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Wed 01:00 AM RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Official Cash Rate) 
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Wed 01:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth) Wed 01:30 PM GDP annual rate 
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day
What happened over the week
In the United States, recent economic data reveals a mixed performance across various sectors. According to the University of Michigan, the Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 71.8 points in November, a slight decline from 73 points in October. However, consumer expectations appear to be improving slightly, with an increase to 3.2% from 3.1% in the same period. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed reported a significant drop in the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey to -5.5 points in November from 10.3 points in October, indicating potential challenges within the manufacturing sector. The Department of Labor observed a modest decline in Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, which lowered to 213,000 in the week ending 16 November, compared to a revised figure of 219,000 the previous week.
Housing data showed noticeable downturns, as reported by the Census Bureau. October’s Housing Starts fell to 1.311 million units from a revised 1.353 million in September, including a broader reported drop of 3.1 million units compared to the prior month’s figure. Building Permits also exhibited a downturn, decreasing significantly to -0.6 million in October from 1.425 million in September. These declines could point to a slowdown in residential construction, potentially impacting broader economic growth.
The NZDUSD, also known as the Kiwi, experienced a drop of -0.39% to 0.58348 on Friday, marking a consecutive week of declines totaling -0.48%, reaching a 12-month low unseen since 1 November 2023. The currency pair’s movement is influenced by the contrasting economic data between the U.S. and New Zealand, with investors focusing on forthcoming U.S. announcements, such as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes due on Tuesday, and critical economic indicators including GDP annual rate and the PCE Price Index on Wednesday. Additionally, New Zealand’s Reserve Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday may tip the balance further. Given this, the NZDUSD could face heightened volatility, with further downside pressure if the U.S. data remains robust or if the RBNZ signals a dovish stance. Conversely, potential upside movements could occur if New Zealand’s outlook strengthens or if U.S. data disappoints.
From X (Twitter)
Latest release: Food prices fall in October 2024.https://t.co/BJxwYPx27h pic.twitter.com/XL1IUFn9an
— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) November 13, 2024
What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.39% to 0.58. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-11-22, the pair dropped -0.48% or -28.4 pips lower.
Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.58.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.58 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.58 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.59 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.58 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of November, NZDUSD is down by -2.29% or -136.7 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.60 |
| R2 | 0.60 |
| R1 | 0.59 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.59 |
| S1 | 0.58 |
| S2 | 0.58 |
| S3 | 0.57 |
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