USDCAD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-11-22 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.39 | 1.40 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0% | 0.1 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2024-11-22 | -0.79% | -111 Pips | |
||
| November | 0.31% | 43 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes 
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Wed 01:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth) Wed 01:30 PM GDP annual rate 
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day
Fri 01:30 PM GDP (12-mth)
What happened over the week
In the United States, economic indicators revealed mixed signals. The University of Michigan reported a decrease in the U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment in November, from 73 points in October to 71.8 points. However, the Index of Consumer Expectations showed a slight increase from 3.1% in October to 3.2% in November. The Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey indicated a contraction, dropping to -5.5 points from 10.3 points in the previous month. Additionally, U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims decreased to 213,000 from a revised 219,000 in the week ending November 16. Housing starts fell to 1.311 million in October, down from a revised 1.353 million in September, accompanied by a decrease in building permits to -0.6 million. These combined data indicate softness in manufacturing and housing, despite a tightening labor market.
In Canada, Statistics Canada’s reports painted a picture of economic recovery. Retail trade, excluding automobiles, showed growth, rising to 0.9% in September from a previous -0.8% in August. Overall retail trade for September remained consistent at 0.4%. Inflation data from Statistics Canada and the Bank of Canada showed rising price levels, with the Core Inflation CPI increasing to 1.7% in October from 1.6% in September, and overall CPI inflation rebounding to 2% from 1.6% in September. The monthly CPI Inflation Rate Core also improved to 0.4% in October from September’s flat reading. These figures suggest a recovering retail sector and a steady rise in inflation, highlighting resilience in the Canadian economy.
The USDCAD pair experienced a slight depreciation over the week, moving lower by 0.79%, indicating a bearish tendency, although it remained within the range of prior weeks indicating indecision in the market. The recent data showing weakening U.S. sentiment, declining manufacturing indices, and falling housing starts may apply downward pressure on the U.S. dollar as market participants adjust expectations for future economic growth and Federal Reserve monetary policy actions. Conversely, Canada’s improving retail sales and rising inflation suggest a stronger Canadian dollar outlook. Additionally, upcoming events such as U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes, GDP data, and Canadian GDP figures could further influence the USDCAD movement depending on their outcomes, potentially providing significant catalysts for either currency.
From X (Twitter)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% on a year-over-year basis in October 2024, up from a 1.6% increase in September. https://t.co/Xz9hi726DC pic.twitter.com/OlTZvwrTpI
— Statistics Canada (@StatCan_eng) November 19, 2024
What can we expect from USDCAD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCAD on Friday dropped 0% to 1.40. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-11-22, the pair dropped -0.79% or -111 pips lower.
Looking ahead, USDCAD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.39.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.41 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.40. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.39 or 1.39 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCAD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.39 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of November, USDCAD is up by 0.31% or 43 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.42 |
| R2 | 1.42 |
| R1 | 1.41 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.40 |
| S1 | 1.39 |
| S2 | 1.38 |
| S3 | 1.37 |
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