USDCHF Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-11-22 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.88 | 0.89 |
| Performance | ||||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | |||
| Friday | 0.8% | 71 Pips |  |
|||
| Week 2024-11-22 | 0.75% | 66.5 Pips |  November |
3.51% | 302.7 Pips | |
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes 
Wed 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Wed 01:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth) Wed 01:30 PM GDP annual rate 
Thu 05:00 AM Thanksgiving Day
Fri 08:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth)
What happened over the week
In the United States, there have been mixed economic data. Most notably, the University of Michigan reported that the U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment decreased to 71.8 in November from 73 in October, indicating weakened consumer confidence. Despite this, consumer expectations slightly improved to 3.2% from October’s 3.1%. Manufacturing also presented concerns as the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed a decline, falling to -5.5 from 10.3, reflecting contraction in manufacturing activity. Additionally, the labor market showed signs of strength, with initial unemployment claims decreasing to 213,000, continuing to indicate a robust job market. However, the housing sector faced setbacks as housing starts dropped to 1.311 million from a revised 1.353 million in September, and building permits also fell, depicting a potential slowdown in the sector. This data collectively suggests mixed economic performance but with potential underlying resilience, especially in the labor market.
In Switzerland, there was a noticeable slowdown in industrial production within the secondary sector. The Federal Statistical Office reported a decline to a 3.5% growth rate in the third quarter from 7.3% in the second quarter. This significant decrease indicates waning momentum in industrial production and could present broader challenges for the Swiss economy if the trend continues. The drop could reflect reduced demand or other economic headwinds impacting the sector, which remains a vital component of Switzerland’s economy.
Concerning the USD/CHF currency pair, the mixed economic data from the United States and weakening industrial production in Switzerland have contributed to the recent appreciation of the USDCHF. The USD/CHF rose 0.8% to 0.89360, marking its sixth consecutive weekly gain and reaching the highest level since July 2024. Factors such as the robust U.S. job market and expectations of potential forward guidance from the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes could continue to support the USD. Conversely, Swiss industrial weakness contributes to diminished demand for CHF, aligning with current upward momentum in USDCHF. Investors will keep a close eye on upcoming high-impact events, such as FOMC minutes and the U.S. GDP annual rate, which could further sway market sentiment and influence USDCHF movements.
From X (Twitter)
Maintaining price stability in a small open economy with a safe-haven currency. The summary of the keynote speech at the conference ‘The SNB and its Watchers’ by Martin Schlegel, Chairman of the Governing Board, is available on our website.https://t.co/FKixjmikTk pic.twitter.com/u1Qj8L2lNu
— Swiss National Bank (@SNB_BNS) November 22, 2024
What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCHF on Friday rose 0.8% to 0.89. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-11-22, the pair rose 0.75% or 66.5 pips higher.
Looking ahead, USDCHF looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.90 (WR1) with break above could target 0.91 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.88 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.90 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of November, USDCHF is up by 3.51% or 302.7 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.92 |
| R2 | 0.91 |
| R1 | 0.90 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.89 |
| S1 | 0.88 |
| S2 | 0.87 |
| S3 | 0.87 |
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