EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Monday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Monday | 0.07% | 7.4 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.09% | 9.6 Pips | |
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| November | -3.6% | -392.1 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Tue 07:00 PM USD FOMC Meeting Minutes Wed 01:30 PM USD PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth) Wed 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate
What happened lately
Germany has experienced a downturn in its business climate as seen in the recent economic data from the ifo Institute. In November, the ifo Current Assessment, which evaluates the present business situation, dropped to 84.3 points, down from 85.7 in October. This indicates a decline in business confidence in the current economic conditions. Additionally, the ifo Expectations index slightly decreased from 87.3 points to 87.2 points, suggesting a cautious outlook for future business expectations among German companies. Moreover, the overall ifo Business Climate Index fell to 85.7 points in November compared to 86.5 points in October. This combination of declining metrics portrays a somber mood among businesses in Germany, adhering to the challenges faced in the current economic landscape.
The recent German economic data can lead to a weakening of the euro, which might affect the EURUSD pair, as the economic sentiment coming out of Germany – a major component of the Eurozone economy – is perceived negatively. However, the EURUSD experienced a minor increase by 0.07% to 1.04940 on Monday, indicating that the pair is in a state of consolidation despite the weak German data. Moving forward, traders and investors should keep a keen eye on significant US economic data and events scheduled this week, which include the FOMC Meeting Minutes and the US PCE Price Index, as well as the GDP annual rate. These high-impact events could overshadow the European data and potentially create volatility in the EURUSD pair, depending on the outcomes and market sentiment towards US economic policy and health.
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What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Monday rose 0.07% to 1.04940. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.04516 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.05303 or trades above daily pivot 1.0491. Break above could target R1 at 1.05333. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.04516 (S1) and daily low of 1.04486 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.05303 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.0615 |
| R2 | 1.05727 |
| R1 | 1.05333 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.0491 |
| S1 | 1.04516 |
| S2 | 1.04093 |
| S3 | 1.03699 |
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