Audusd rises amid mixed U.S. performance and stable Australian inflation

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Wednesday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Wednesday	0.27%	17.4 Pips
Week to-date	-0.66%	-42.9 Pips
November	-1.21%	-79.8 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

The United States has shown a mixed economic performance with various indicators reflecting varying trends. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in October showed a slight decrease to 0.4% from the previous month’s 0.5%, with the core PCE Price Index remaining steady at 0.3% month-on-month but rising to 2.8% year-on-year. Personal Income increased by 0.6%, indicating potential consumer resilience. However, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index saw a decline, leading to concerns about economic momentum. The Pending Home Sales also saw a significant drop from 7.4% to 2% in October, hinting at potential sectoral weaknesses. Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense grew by 0.4%, but Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft declined. Despite these mixed signals, GDP growth remained steady at an annual rate of 2.8% for the third quarter (flash estimate), while both the quarterly GDP Price Index and house prices saw modest increases. The Department of Labor reported a slight drop in initial unemployment insurance claims, which indicates a still-strong labor market, even as the overall growth indicators present a complex picture of the economy. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Department of Labor.

Australia’s economic data for October as reflected in the Monthly CPI Indicator was steady with a 12-month increase of 2.1%, identical to the previous month’s report, showing moderate inflation levels. This consistency provides a level of economic stability from a pricing perspective, although it doesn’t suggest significant momentum in either direction. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The performance of AUDUSD reflects a combination of these mixed economic data from the United States and the steady inflation rate in Australia. The modest rise of 0.27% to 0.64970 on Wednesday suggests that the forex market is weighing the overall stability in Australian prices against the United States’ mixed economic signals. While U.S. consumer data revealed some strong income growth, declines in certain manufacturing and housing data likely offset this strength. The nuanced data from both countries implies a stable AUDUSD in the short term, as forex traders continue to parse through the contrasting indicators to balance perceived economic resilience in the U.S. with stable inflation figures in Australia.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Wednesday rose 0.27% to 0.64970. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Wednesday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.65122 with break above could target R2 at 0.65275 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.64587 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.65007 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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