AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.14% to 0.65167. Week ending 2024-11-29 moved lower by -0.35%. End of November dropped -0.91%. What happened.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.14%	9.3 Pips
Week 2024-11-29	-0.35%	-23.2 Pips
November	-0.91%	-60.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 12:30 AM Retail Trade Turnover (seasonally adjusted) (1-mth)
Wed 12:30 AM GDP (3-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

In Australia, the Private New Capital Expenditure for the third quarter of 2023 reported an optimistic increase of 1.1%, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This represents an improvement from the negative figure of -2.2% recorded in the second quarter. Additionally, the country’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October was stable at 2.1% over a 12-month period, maintaining the same level as it was reported in September.

Turning to the United States, several economic data points were reported. In October, consumer spending witnessed a slight decrease to 0.4% from 0.5% in September, while the Personal Income rose by 0.6%, up from 0.3% in the previous month. The U.S. PCE Price Index excluding food and energy showed a modest increase over a 12-month timeline to 2.8% from 2.7%, while the annual PCE Price Index rose from 2.1% to 2.3% in October. Durable Goods Orders in October increased by 0.2%, signaling a recovery from the prior month’s negative figures. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders excluding Defense showed a positive move, increasing by 0.4%, while excluding Transportation, they showed a further decline to 0.1%. The GDP annual rate held steady at 2.8% for the third quarter, with a marginal increase in the GDP Price Index to 1.9% from 1.8% in the previous quarter. The U.S. House Price Index also climbed to 0.7% in September. These reports were provided by agencies such as the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau.

Regarding the AUDUSD exchange rate, the series of reports highlight a mixed economic outlook. The Australian economic cheer with an increase in capital expenditures is likely to lend some support to the AUD; however, this is countered by stable inflation, signaling no immediate pressures for monetary policy tightening. In contrast, mixed data from the U.S. paint a picture of a resilient economy but with signs of uneven growth, as seen in the mixed durable goods orders. On the trading front, over the past week, the AUDUSD rose slightly by 0.14% but saw declines over the month and hit a two-week high towards the week’s close. Given the economic indicators from both countries, the AUDUSD could face continued volatility, depending on upcoming economic releases from both Australia and the U.S.

From X (Twitter)

“Business investment rose 2.3 per cent in the non-mining industries. This was partly offset by a fall in mining capital expenditure of 1.9 per cent,” Robert Ewing, ABS head of business statistics

Visit https://t.co/VYYqZEKUgn pic.twitter.com/RS2c2CEnfX

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) November 28, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday rose 0.14% to 0.65. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-11-29, the pair dropped -0.35% or -23.2 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.64.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.65 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.65. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.64 or 0.65 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.64 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, AUDUSD is down by -0.91% or -60.1 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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