EURUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-11-29 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 1.06 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.14% | 14.5 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-11-29 | 0.93% | 97.6 Pips | |
||
| November | -2.83% | -308.6 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 10:00 AM GDP (seasonally adjusted) (3-mth) Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
In the Euro Area, the Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for November saw a slight increase to 2.8% from 2.7% in October, as reported by Eurostat. The headline HICP flash estimate dipped to -0.3% from 0.3% in October, while the 12-month HICP estimate improved to 2.3%, up from 2%. A notable decline was observed in the Core HICP flash estimate, which dropped to -0.6% from 0.2%. The Euro Area Business Climate saw an improvement, shifting to -0.77 points from -0.96 points, yet consumer confidence fell from -12.4 points in October to -13.7. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) showed marginal growth to 95.8 points from 95.7. Collectively, these data highlight mixed signals of inflation pressures and consumer sentiment, indicating underlying economic uncertainties.
Germany’s economic data presented varied dynamics. Unemployment remained stable at 6.1%, with a significant decrease in unemployment change from 27K to 7K in November, according to Destatis. Retail trade and turnover figures showed a decline, with October figures reflecting a decrease to -1.5% from a 1.2% rise in September and retail turnover dropping annually from 3.8% to 1%. The CPI inflation rate’s flash estimate showed a noticeable decrease to -0.2% from 0.4% in October, reflecting potential deflationary pressures. The Ifo Business Climate indices revealed a decline with the business climate index falling to 85.7 points and current assessment slipping from 85.7 to 84.3 points, indicating a weaker business outlook. Gfk Consumer Confidence plummeted to -23.3 points for December, underscoring consumer apprehensions regarding the economy.
In the United States, as detailed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau, consumer spending growth slowed, reflected by a decrease to 0.4% in October, while the PCE Price Index, both excluding food and energy, showed continued growth. Meanwhile, personal income for October increased significantly by 0.6%. Durable goods orders presented mixed results, with an increase in new orders by 0.2% but a decline in nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft. October’s GDP annual rate remained stable at 2.8%, reflecting steady economic growth, while the house price index painted a positive picture with a rise to 0.7% in September.
The EURUSD movement reflects a modest increase of 0.14% to 1.05775 on Friday, concluding the week with a 0.93% gain despite a November slump of 2.83%. This mixed movement aligns with the myriad economic indicators that portray both growth and anxiety in key global economies. Positive inflation and employment data from the U.S. might gradually strengthen the dollar, impacting EURUSD negatively. However, upcoming high-impact events, such as Euro Area GDP figures and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, could shift sentiment and potentially influence EURUSD’s further direction.
From X (Twitter)
Euro area #inflation expected to be 2.3% in November 2024, up from 2.0% in October. Components: services +3.9%, food, alcohol & tobacco +2.8%, other goods +0.7%, energy -1.9% – flash estimate https://t.co/xDtpCCworx pic.twitter.com/gmDf88jpk9
— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) November 29, 2024
We have posted the minutes from the #FOMC meeting held November 6-7, 2024: https://t.co/zhJosicsgA
— Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) November 26, 2024
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday rose 0.14% to 1.06. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-11-29, the pair rose 0.93% or 97.6 pips higher.
Looking ahead, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.04.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.06 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.05. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.04 or 1.05 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.06 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of November, EURUSD is down by -2.83% or -308.6 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.08 |
| R2 | 1.07 |
| R1 | 1.06 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.05 |
| S1 | 1.05 |
| S2 | 1.04 |
| S3 | 1.03 |
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