USDJPY on Friday dropped -1% to 149.67. Week ending 2024-11-29 moved lower by -2.91%. End of November dropped -1.52%. What you need to know.

USDJPY Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-1%	-150.6 Pips
Week 242024-11-29	-2.91%	-447.8 Pips
November	-1.52%	-231.2 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

In Japan, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Statistics Bureau of Japan indicated a mixed economic performance for October and November. Large Retailer Sales in Japan declined by 1% in October, a drop from the 2% increase in September, suggesting a contraction in consumer spending within that retail sector. Despite this, Japan saw an increase in retail trade growth, with annual figures rising to 1.6% from the previous month’s revised 0.7%. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 2.5% in October, indicating a marginally weakening labor market. Inflation in Japan showed an upward trajectory, with the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rising to 2.2% in November from 1.8% in October, and the broader Tokyo CPI recorded a significant increase to 2.6%, pointing towards heightened inflationary pressures.

In the United States, information from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau reflected moderate consumer spending and price changes. U.S. Consumer Spending (PCE) fell slightly to 0.4% in October from 0.5% in September, alongside a nominal increase in the PCE Price Index excluding food and energy, which rose to 2.8% over a 12-month period. Personal Income growth registered at 0.6% in October, up from 0.3% in September, suggesting an increase in disposable income. Durable Goods Orders also exhibited mixed results, with new orders rising by 0.2%, though nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell by 0.2%. Unemployment insurance claims showed a minor drop to 213,000 from a revised 215,000, emphasizing stability in the employment market. The U.S. GDP growth rate remained stable at an annual rate of 2.8% during Q3, signaling consistent economic performance.

Given these recent economic indicators from Japan and the U.S., the USDJPY currency pair’s downturn can be explained by multiple factors. The higher inflation rates in Japan, coupled with only a small increase in U.S. consumer spending and the relatively stable GDP growth, contribute to downward pressure on USDJPY, as lower U.S. expenditure signals a potential weakening of the dollar. Moreover, the fall in durable goods orders and a marginal improvement in Japan’s retail figures may have supported the yen in strengthening against the dollar. The upcoming U.S. nonfarm payroll employment figures, a key economic indicator, will be critical for the currency’s trajectory, potentially injecting further volatility based on the job market’s health. Current momentum appears to be favoring the yen, especially given the USDJPY’s descent from recent highs.

From social media

The BOJ released the Monthly Report on the Services Producer Price Index for October 2024.https://t.co/UC2aT8hjbI pic.twitter.com/x3EeutFfIt

— Bank of Japan (@Bank_of_Japan_e) November 27, 2024

What can we expect from USDJPY for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDJPY on Friday dropped -1% to 149.67. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending ,2024-11-29, the pair dropped -2.91% or -447.8 pips lower.

Looking ahead, USDJPY looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 149.46.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 147.96 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 146.25 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 154.37 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 149.46 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of November, USDJPY is down by -1.52% or -231.2 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

You might also be interested in:

Personal Income and Outlays, October 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Trade Statistics (First 10 Days of November 2024 [Provisional]) Source: Ministry of Finance
Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau
Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau
New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 6-7, 2024 Source: Federal Reserve