AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.92% to 0.63905. Week ending 2024-12-06 moved lower by -1.72%. What you need to know.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.92%	-59.4 Pips
Week 2024-12-06	-1.72%	-111.9 Pips
December	-1.8%	-116.9 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 03:30 AM RBA Monetary Policy Decision (Cash Rate Target)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 12:30 AM Labour Force Monthly Employment Change
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Thu 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)

What happened over the week

The United States reported mixed economic data in December. The Index of Consumer Expectations slightly decreased to 3.1% from 3.2%, indicating a slight decline in consumers’ outlook. Meanwhile, the Index of Consumer Sentiment increased to 74 points from 71.8, suggesting improved consumer confidence. On the employment front, November’s average hourly earnings remained unchanged at 4%, but nonfarm payroll employment significantly rose to 227,000 compared to 36,000 in the previous month, reflecting stronger job growth. However, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%. Additionally, initial unemployment claims increased to 224,000 from a revised 215,000, showing some labor market pressures. Moreover, new orders for manufactured goods rose by 0.2% in October, after a decline in September, signaling modest industrial activity growth (Sources: University of Michigan, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor, Census Bureau).

Australia also experienced a mix of economic results. In October, imports of goods increased by 0.1%, and the international trade surplus grew to 5,953 million, up from the previous period. Exports of goods jumped by 3.6%, a turnaround from the decline seen in September. However, building approvals slipped to 4.2% from 5.8%. Quarterly GDP growth for Q3 improved slightly to 0.3%, while the annual GDP growth rate decreased to 0.8% from 1%. Retail trade turnover increased to 0.6% in October, showing resilience in consumer spending (Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics).

The AUDUSD exchange rate has been under pressure, declining by 0.92% to 0.63905, marking a 17-week low. The mixed economic data from both the US and Australia is likely contributing to market uncertainties. Strong US employment data alongside high consumer sentiment could support the US dollar, putting pressure on the AUD. However, the upcoming high-impact economic events, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decision and the US inflation rate, could further sway the exchange rate. The market will also pay close attention to Australia’s employment data and the US Producer Price Index and unemployment claims. These developments may drive volatility in the AUDUSD currency pair in the short term.

From X (Twitter)

“The Australian economy grew for the twelfth quarter in a row, but has continued to slow since September 2023,” Katherine Keenan, ABS head of national accounts

Visit https://t.co/ZK48YZNd2g pic.twitter.com/eFDcFrM74D

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) December 4, 2024

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.92% to 0.64. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-12-06, the pair dropped -1.72% or -111.9 pips lower.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.64.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.63 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.63 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.65 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.64 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of December, AUDUSD is down by -1.8% or -116.9 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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