NZDUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-12-13 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.15% | -8.8 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-12-13 | -1.32% | -77.3 Pips |  |
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| December | -2.29% | -134.9 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) Wed 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM Interest Rate Projections 
Wed 09:45 PM GDP (3-mth) | Q3 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 01:30 PM GDP annual rate | Q3 Fri 01:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
What happened over the week
In the United States, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November revealed modest increases according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The overall CPI rose to 0.3% from 0.2% in October. Notably, when excluding the typically volatile food and energy sectors, the CPI remained unchanged at 0.3%, consistent with October’s performance. Over the 12-month period, the CPI excluding food and energy sectors held steady at 3.3%. The headline 12-month CPI inflation rate edged slightly higher to 2.7% from October’s 2.6%. Such incremental changes suggest a moderate inflation environment, with underlying pressures relatively stable. Meanwhile, in the labor market, U.S. unit labor costs experienced a notable decline to 0.8% in Q3, down from 1.9% in Q2, indicating potential easing in wage-cost pressures. Additionally, labor productivity maintained a steady growth rate of 2.2% in Q3, matching the previous quarter’s performance.
The recent performance and future prospects for the NZDUSD pair indicate a challenging landscape for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the U.S. Dollar (USD). NZDUSD closed on Friday at a lower value of 0.57615, reflecting a 0.15% dip, marking its lowest level since early November 2022 and showing a continual downtrend for the second consecutive week. The decline can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the recent CPI data from the U.S. that suggests a steady inflation rate and stable labor market dynamics, which might bolster the USD. Looking ahead, critical events such as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and projections could further influence the exchange rate. A potential increase in U.S. interest rates could strengthen the USD, putting additional pressure on the NZD. Conversely, New Zealand’s GDP data release has the potential to sway sentiment if it surpasses expectations, potentially offering support to the NZD. Overall, the current economic indicators point towards a sustained advantage for the USD, amid a backdrop of forthcoming high-impact U.S. economic data releases.
From X (Twitter)
Latest release: Building activity down 3.2 percent in September 2024 quarter.https://t.co/uIStab9daM pic.twitter.com/jHiYoArLKm
— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) December 4, 2024
What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.15% to 0.58. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-12-13, the pair dropped -1.32% or -77.3 pips lower.
Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.58.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.57 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.57 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.59 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.58 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of December, NZDUSD is down by -2.29% or -134.9 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.59 |
| R2 | 0.59 |
| R1 | 0.58 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.58 |
| S1 | 0.57 |
| S2 | 0.57 |
| S3 | 0.56 |
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