USDCHF Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-12-13 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.88 | 0.89 |
| Performance | ||||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | |||
| Friday | 0.07% | 5.8 Pips |  |
|||
| Week 2024-12-13 | 1.58% | 139.2 Pips |  December |
1.16% | 102.5 Pips |  |
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth) Wed 07:00 PM Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM Interest Rate Projections 
Thu 01:30 PM Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Thu 01:30 PM GDP annual rate | Q3 Fri 01:30 PM PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy (12-mth)
What happened over the week
In the United States, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, saw no change in November, remaining steady at 0.3% month-on-month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Overall, CPI inflation increased slightly to 0.3% from 0.2% in the previous month. Over the year, the core CPI also held steady at 3.3%, while the general CPI inflation rate rose marginally to 2.7% in November from 2.6% in October, signaling subdued inflationary pressures. In employment costs, unit labor costs decreased notably in the third quarter, coming down to 0.8% from 1.9% in the second quarter, suggesting possible easing of wage pressure. Meanwhile, nonfarm business labor productivity maintained its growth rate of 2.2% during the same period, indicating stable productivity amidst changes in labor costs.
The USDCHF currency pair saw an increase of 0.07% on Friday to 0.89259, ending a two-week decline and reaching a new three-week high with a weekly rise of 1.58%. This movement may be attributed to market anticipations of upcoming economic data releases and monetary policy decisions. Events such as the U.S. Monthly Retail Trade, Fed Interest Rate Decision, interest rate projections, and GDP annual rate for Q3 are expected to have significant impacts on currency fluctuations. The stability in inflation rates amid decreasing labor costs might ease concerns about aggressive Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening. Hence, the USDCHF might experience volatility depending on the outcomes of these economic indicators. If the Fed indicates a dovish stance due to the stable inflation and lower labor costs data, it could lead to a weakening of the U.S. dollar, potentially affecting the USDCHF negatively. Conversely, any unexpected hawkish signals from the Fed could bolster the dollar, pushing USDCHF higher.
From X (Twitter)
🎭📖 Gross value added in the #culture sector exceeded the CHF 16 billion mark for the first time in 2022. However, the trend is very uneven across the different sectors of the cultural economy. #FSO
➡️ https://t.co/hBcoBF6BaC pic.twitter.com/ozO4lWwyGw— BFS | OFS | UST | FSO (@StatDataCH) November 29, 2024
What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCHF on Friday rose 0.07% to 0.89. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-12-13, the pair rose 1.58% or 139.2 pips higher.
Looking ahead, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.88.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.90 (WR1) with break above could target 0.91 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.88 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.89 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.
For the month of December, USDCHF is up by 1.16% or 102.5 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.92 |
| R2 | 0.91 |
| R1 | 0.90 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.89 |
| S1 | 0.88 |
| S2 | 0.87 |
| S3 | 0.86 |
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