EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Tuesday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Tuesday | -0.29% | -31 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.17% | -18 Pips |  |
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| December | -0.67% | -71 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate) Wed 07:00 PM USD Interest Rate Projections Thu 01:30 PM USD GDP annual rate | Q3
What happened lately
In the United States, industrial production saw a slight improvement in November, moving marginally from -0.3% in October to -0.1%. More notably, the Census Bureau reported that monthly retail trade rose by 0.7% in November, up from 0.4% in the previous month. However, when excluding automobiles, retail trade remained constant at 0.2%. Meanwhile, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index experienced a significant drop to 0.2 points in December from 31.2 points in November, indicating weakening manufacturing activity.
In the Euro Area, the ZEW Survey for Economic Sentiment improved in December, climbing to 17 points from 11.6 points in November, as reported by ZEW. This indicates a more optimistic outlook among investors and analysts. In Germany, there were mixed signals about the economy. The ZEW Economic Sentiment increased to 15.7 points from 7.4 points in the prior month. However, the Economic Situation outline showed a decline, as the indicator fell to -93.1 points in December from -91.4 points in November. Furthermore, Germany’s ifo Institute figures presented a mixed picture; while the ifo Current Assessment index saw a boost to 85.1 in December from 84.3 in November, both the ifo Expectations and the ifo Business Climate Index demonstrated declines. The ifo Expectations fell from 87.2 to 84.4 points and the Business Climate Index decreased to 84.7 points from a revised 85.6 points.
The Euro weakened against the U.S. Dollar, with the EURUSD falling by 0.29% to 1.04920. This decline is likely attributed to the mixture of economic sentiments and indicators, particularly influenced by the U.S.’s positive retail trade data and concerns over Germany’s mixed economic signals. Additionally, there is potential anticipation for the upcoming Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Projections, which add uncertainty to the financial markets, as an interest rate hike could strengthen the USD further. Market participants are likely positioning themselves cautiously ahead of these high-impact events. This alignment of economic reports from both regions and anticipated Federal Reserve decisions has factored into the current movement of the EURUSD pair.
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What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Tuesday dropped -0.29% to 1.04920. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Tuesday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 1.04692 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 1.04463. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 1.05341 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 1.04788 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.05798 |
| R2 | 1.05569 |
| R1 | 1.05245 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.05016 |
| S1 | 1.04692 |
| S2 | 1.04463 |
| S3 | 1.04139 |
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