NZDUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-12-20 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.51% | 28.5 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-12-20 | -1.99% | -114.7 Pips |  |
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| December | -4.08% | -240.4 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 12:00 PM Christmas Day
Wed 05:00 AM Christmas Day Wed 12:00 PM Boxing Day
What happened over the week
In the United States, consumer sentiment in December remained unchanged at 74 points, while the index of consumer expectations saw a slight decrease to 3% from 3.1% in November, according to the University of Michigan. The PCE Price Index excluding food and energy remained stable at 2.8% in November, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, although the one-month index saw a dip to 0.1% from 0.3% in October. Personal Income fell to 0.3% in November from 0.7% in October, and consumer spending witnessed a modest rise to 0.4%. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed reported a decrease in the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey to -16.4 points in December. Housing starts decreased to 1.289 million while building permits rose to 1.505 million. Retail trade saw an increase to 0.7% during November.
In New Zealand, exports rose significantly to $6.48 billion in November from a revised $5.77 billion in October, as reported by Stats NZ. This increase, coupled with a decrease in imports to $6.92 billion, resulted in an improved trade balance of -$8.25 billion annually. The country’s GDP over the past 12 months dropped to -1.5% in Q3, despite a slight improvement over the quarter with a rate of -1%, compared to -1.1% in Q2. These figures suggest fluctuations and moderate economic adjustments within New Zealand’s economic landscape.
The recent data and economic reports indicate a mixed economic climate for both countries. With the U.S. seeing unchanged consumer sentiment but a decrease in some economic indicators like personal income and manufacturing outlook, there are signs of a potential slowdown. On the other hand, New Zealand’s increase in exports and an improving trade balance offer some positive news, although GDP figures remain negative.
Despite the slight recovery of NZDUSD to 0.56560, the currency pair has dropped for the third consecutive week, reaching a two-year low. U.S. interest rates, along with an unchanged sentiment and mixed economic indicators, create market uncertainties that weigh on global currencies, including the NZD. New Zealand’s export growth offers support, but the country’s overall negative GDP figures might not support long-term strength against a relatively stable USD. Foreign exchange markets may remain cautious given these variables, possibly leading to further consolidation or continued downward pressure on the NZDUSD pair.
From X (Twitter)
Latest release: GDP decreases 1.0 percent in the September 2024 quarter.https://t.co/Bo3i7DzlVZ pic.twitter.com/8JBU6uNGLj
— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) December 18, 2024
What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
NZDUSD on Friday rose 0.51% to 0.57. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2024-12-20, the pair dropped -1.99% or -114.7 pips lower.
Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.56.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.56 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.55 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.58 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.56 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of December, NZDUSD is down by -4.08% or -240.4 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.59 |
| R2 | 0.59 |
| R1 | 0.58 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.57 |
| S1 | 0.56 |
| S2 | 0.55 |
| S3 | 0.54 |
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Gross Domestic Product, (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. International Transactions, 3rd Quarter 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the December 17-18 FOMC meeting Source: Federal Reserve Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Source: Federal Reserve New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau