EURUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2024-12-27 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.01% | 0.6 Pips |  |
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| Week 2024-12-27 | -0.09% | -9.3 Pips | |
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| December | -1.32% | -139.2 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Mon 10:00 PM New Year’s Eve Tue 10:00 PM New Year’s Day
Wed 05:00 AM New Year’s Day
What happened over the week
In the United States, the economic data released in late December highlights a mixed picture. The Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims slightly decreased to 219,000 for the week ending December 21, showing a minor improvement in the labor market conditions according to the Department of Labor. Conversely, the Census Bureau reported a decline in Durable Goods Orders for November. Total new orders dropped by 1.1%, reversing the revised October growth of 0.8%. When excluding transportation, the orders showed a minor decrease of 0.1%, changing from the 0.2% increase in October. The durable goods orders excluding defense also saw a reduction, falling by 0.3% from October’s revised 0.5%. On the brighter side, Nondefense Capital Goods Orders excluding Aircraft rose by 0.7% in November, signifying potential investments in the economic sector despite the overall decline in durable goods orders.
The EUR/USD currency pair experienced minimal movement, recording a slight rise of 0.01% to reach 1.04238 on Friday. Over the week ending December 27, the pair decreased marginally by 0.09%. The trading week was characterized by muted activity due to the Christmas holidays, leading to inside-bar trading patterns with minimal fluctuations. The upcoming New Year’s Eve and Day holidays in both Germany and the United States may maintain reduced volatility. The recent U.S. economic data showing weakness in durable goods orders may exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar if continued, potentially leading to support for the Euro. However, during the holiday season, significant abrupt changes are unlikely. Further developments in the new year and next economic data releases will be crucial to understanding the medium-term direction for EUR/USD.
From X (Twitter)
Manufactured #DurableGoods new orders were down -1.1% to $285.1B (seasonally adjusted) from October to November 2024, down three of the last four months.
➡️ https://t.co/FRUE6H8yhb #CensusEconData #Manufacturing pic.twitter.com/cbBAYUEbbH
— U.S. Census Bureau (@uscensusbureau) December 23, 2024
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday rose 0.01% to 1.04. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2024-12-27, the pair dropped -0.09% or -9.3 pips lower.
Looking ahead, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.04.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.04 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.04. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.04 or 1.04 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.04 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of December, EURUSD is down by -1.32% or -139.2 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.05 |
| R2 | 1.05 |
| R1 | 1.04 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.04 |
| S1 | 1.04 |
| S2 | 1.04 |
| S3 | 1.03 |
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Advance Retail Inventories Source: Census Bureau Advance U.S. International Trade in Goods Source: Census Bureau Advance Wholesale Inventories Source: Census Bureau New Home Sales Source: Census Bureau Advance Monthly Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau