EURUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2025-01-03 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.03 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.38% | 39.4 Pips |  |
||
| Week 2025-01-03 | -1.17% | -121.8 Pips |  |
||
| January | -0.95% | -98.6 Pips | |
||
Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 10:00 AM Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) (12-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
In Germany, the unemployment rate for December held steady at 3.4% following November’s figures, according to Destatis. The count of unemployed individuals fell slightly in November 2024 by 2,000, reaching 1.52 million people, signifying a marginal decline of 0.1% from October 2024. This stability in the labor market suggests a resilient German economy amid other external economic pressures, with unemployment figures reflecting consistent demand in the employment sector.
Meanwhile, in the United States, initial unemployment insurance claims showed a significant decrease for the week ending December 28, reducing to 211,000 from the previous figure of 220,000 as reported by the Department of Labor. This drop indicates a strengthening U.S. labor market with fewer individuals filing for unemployment benefits. Additionally, the U.S. House Price Index experienced a minor decline in growth to 0.4% for October, down from September’s 0.7%, as per the Federal Housing Finance Agency. This reduction might reflect slight softening in housing demand or pricing adjustments.
The EURUSD currency pair observed an upward movement of 0.38% to 1.03076 on Friday. However, it fell by 1.17% for the week ending January 3, 2025, marking its third consecutive monthly decline of 2.11% in December. It hit a record low unseen since November 2022, with an overall yearly drop of 6.2% in 2024. German employment stability may lend some support to the euro; however, the strong U.S. labor figures may continue to bolster the dollar, potentially exerting downward pressure on EURUSD. Upcoming key economic events such as the Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices in the euro area and U.S. Nonfarm Payroll data, along with FOMC meeting minutes, can create further volatility and influence EURUSD movements depending on the economic implications drawn from these reports.
From X (Twitter)
Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2024 waren rund 46,1 Millionen Menschen mit Arbeitsort in Deutschland erwerbstätig, 72 000 Personen mehr als im Vorjahr (+0,2 %). Die #Erwerbstätigenzahl stieg ausschließlich in den Dienstleistungsbereichen. Mehr Infos: https://t.co/s7e68rkQro pic.twitter.com/1BCoSY9Fg7
— Statistisches Bundesamt (@destatis) January 2, 2025
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday rose 0.38% to 1.03. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-01-03, the pair dropped -1.17% or -121.8 pips lower.
Looking ahead, EURUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Friday trading session.
For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.02 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.01 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.04 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 1.02 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of January, EURUSD is down by -0.95% or -98.6 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.06 |
| R2 | 1.05 |
| R1 | 1.04 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.03 |
| S1 | 1.02 |
| S2 | 1.01 |
| S3 | 1.00 |
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