USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.37% to 0.90868. Week ending 2025-01-03 rose 0.76%. What happened.

USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.37%	-33.3 Pips
Week 2025-01-03	0.76%	68.4 Pips
January	0.6%	54.4 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 07:30 AM Swiss CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Wed 07:00 PM FOMC Meeting Minutes
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened over the week

In the United States, the number of initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending December 28 decreased to 211,000 from the previous revised figure of 220,000 according to the Department of Labor. This reduction suggests an improvement in the labor market as fewer individuals filed for unemployment benefits. In another economic data release, the U.S. House Price Index for the month of October showed a decline from 0.7% in September to 0.4%, as reported by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). This could indicate a potential cooling in the housing market, impacting homeowner wealth and possibly consumer spending.

The exchange rate pairing USDCHF traded 0.37% lower on Friday, settling at 0.90868. Over the week ending January 3, however, USDCHF reported a rise of 0.76% and showed an upward trend in December with a gain of 3.06%, marking the highest level since May 2024. For the entire year of 2024, USDCHF ended with a significant increase of 7.86%. Looking forward, noteworthy events such as the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and U.S. FOMC meeting minutes, alongside the critical U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment data, are expected to influence the future movement of USDCHF.

Considering recent events and data, the exchange rate for USDCHF could be influenced by the dual factors of improved U.S. labor market conditions and a decrease in U.S. house price growth. The drop in unemployment claims suggests economic resilience in the U.S., which could strengthen the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc, assuming no offsetting negative U.S. data emerges. Simultaneously, anticipation around upcoming economic data, especially U.S. Nonfarm Payroll figures, typically has a significant impact on this currency pair. Thus, market players are likely to remain sensitive to these developments, adjusting their positions based on the new data, affecting future USDCHF volatility.

From X (Twitter)

Quarterly Bulletin 4/2024 https://t.co/LcEj4vZeSq

— Swiss National Bank (@SNB_BNS) December 18, 2024

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday dropped -0.37% to 0.91. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-01-03, the pair rose 0.76% or 68.4 pips higher.

Looking ahead, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.90.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.91 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.91. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.90 or 0.90 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.91 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of January, USDCHF is up by 0.6% or 54.4 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Construction Spending Source: Census Bureau