Eurusd falls 0.18% to 1.02996 amid mixed economic indicators

EURUSD Analysis

Performance after Thursday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Thursday	-0.18%	-18.2 Pips
Week to-date	-0.06%	-5.7 Pips
January	-1.02%	-106.6 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

Fri 01:30 PM USD Nonfarm Payroll Employment

What happened lately

In the Euro Area, November saw a mixed performance in economic indicators. Retail trade turnover for the year decreased to 1.2% from a revised 2.1% in October, although month-on-month figures showed a slight recovery, increasing to 0.1% from a revised -0.3%. Producer Price Index saw improvement, recording a decline of -1.2% in November compared to -3.2% in October, and a rise to 1.6% compared to the previous monthly figure of 0.4%. However, business sentiment and economic sentiment both declined in December, with the Business Climate (BCI) falling to -0.91 points and Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) down to 93.7 points. Consumer confidence remained steady at -14.5 points in December. These mixed indicators reflect a balance between slight recovery and persistent economic challenges. Source: Eurostat, European Commission, DG ECFIN.

In Germany, November’s economic indicators also displayed mixed results. Industrial production improved with a significant increase to 1.5% in seasonally adjusted terms from a previous figure of -0.4%, and the year-on-year performance showed an improved decline of -2.8% compared to -4.5% in October. The trade balance saw a robust increase to €19.7 billion from €13.4 billion. Retail trade turnover also improved, rising to 2.5% from 1% in October. However, new orders in manufacturing saw a sharp decline, with seasonally adjusted figures dropping to -5.4% from -1.5%. The mixed performance, especially in manufacturing, highlights ongoing challenges for Germany’s economy. Source: Destatis.

In the United States, the job market remained strong with initial unemployment insurance claims dropping to 201,000 in the week ending January 4th, from 211,000 previously. This indicates continued strength in the U.S. labor market. Source: Department of Labor.

The EURUSD exchange rate witnessed a decline of 0.18% to 1.02996. The mixed data from the Euro Area, combined with declining business and economic sentiment, likely exerted downward pressure on the Euro. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar might have been bolstered by strong labor market data. Market participants may have adjusted their positions ahead of upcoming high-impact economic events such as the Nonfarm Payroll Employment report, which typically influences expectations about U.S. economic strength and monetary policy direction.

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What can we expect from EURUSD today?

EURUSD on Thursday dropped -0.18% to 1.02996. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.

Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 1.02815 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 1.02634. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 1.03215 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 1.02834 would indicate selling pressure.

For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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