EURUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2025-01-10 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.52% | -53.2 Pips |  |
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| Week 2025-01-10 | -0.59% | -60.9 Pips | |
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| January | -1.55% | -161.8 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) Thu 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
What happened over the week
In the United States, the economic data indicates a mixed outlook. The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell slightly in January, signaling potential concerns about consumer confidence. However, the Index of Consumer Expectations improved, suggesting some optimism about the future. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, and Nonfarm Payroll Employment showed a solid increase with 256,000 jobs added in December. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings growth slowed on a monthly basis, both in December and over the past 12 months. U.S. Job Openings surged, indicating strong demand for labor, but new orders for manufactured goods decreased. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims also fell during the week ending January 4, highlighting some resilience in the job market.
In the Euro Area, economic indicators present a challenging environment. Retail Trade Turnover showed mixed results with a marginal monthly increase but a notable 12-month decline. Business confidence and economic sentiment deteriorated in December, as the Business Climate Indicator and Economic Sentiment Indicator both fell. However, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Prices, especially the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, indicated rising inflation pressures. The unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3%. Notably, Germany’s trade balance saw a significant increase, and industrial production showed improvement. However, Germany faced decreased new orders in manufacturing and mixed results in retail and industrial data.
The recent economic data from both regions influences the EURUSD currency pair. The decline in the Euro against the U.S. Dollar, which dropped to the lowest level since November 2022, reflects concerns about the Euro Area’s weaker economic indicators and heightened inflation without corresponding strong growth. In contrast, the U.S. data, despite mixed signals, shows some robust aspects like the labor market, which may support the Dollar. With upcoming key economic data releases for the U.S., including inflation and retail trade, further volatility in the EURUSD may occur depending on these outcomes. Continued weak European data contrasted with any strong or improving U.S. figures could exert further downward pressure on the Euro against the U.S. Dollar.
From X (Twitter)
Read more in our #EconomicBulletin on the pass-through of monetary policy to goods and services inflation.
— European Central Bank (@ecb) January 9, 2025
Payroll employment rises by 256,000 in December; unemployment rate changes little at 4.1% #JobsReport #EmpSit #BLSdata https://t.co/ZwrVfLviqL
— BLS-Labor Statistics (@BLS_gov) January 10, 2025
What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.52% to 1.02. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-01-10, the pair dropped -0.59% or -60.9 pips lower.
Looking ahead, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.02.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 1.04 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 1.03. On the downside, we are looking at week low 1.02 or 1.02 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 1.02 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of January, EURUSD is down by -1.55% or -161.8 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.06 |
| R2 | 1.05 |
| R1 | 1.04 |
| Weekly Pivot | 1.03 |
| S1 | 1.02 |
| S2 | 1.01 |
| S3 | 0.99 |
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In November 2024, manufacturing output increased slightly (+0,2 %) Source: INSEE Household consumption of goods rebounded in November 2024 (+0.3%) Source: INSEE
Volume of retail trade up by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau In Q3 2024, payroll employment was almost stable or up slightly in all regions Source: INSEE Industrial producer prices up by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU Source: Eurostat Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17-18, 2024 Source: Federal Reserve In December 2024, household confidence deteriorated again Source: INSEE Euro area unemployment at 6.3% Source: Eurostat Euro area annual inflation up to 2.4% Source: Eurostat
CORRECTION: Inflation rate in December 2024 expected to be +2.6% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, November 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau In December 2024, consumer prices increased by 1.3% year on year Source: INSEE Inflation rate in December 2024 expected to be +2.6% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)