NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.71% to 0.55540. Week ending 2025-01-10 moved lower by -1.11%. What you need to know.

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.71%	-39.5 Pips
Week 2025-01-10	-1.11%	-62.1 Pips
January	-1.52%	-85.7 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, the University of Michigan reported that the Consumer Sentiment Index in January’s flash estimate fell slightly to 73.2 from December’s value of 74. Meanwhile, the Consumer Expectations Index saw a marginal improvement, rising to 3.3% in January from December’s 3%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were mixed signals in wage data where December’s average hourly earnings decreased to 0.3% from 0.4% in November, and on an annual basis decreased to 3.9% from the previous month’s 4%. The unemployment rate saw a favorable dip to 4.1% in December, down from November’s 4.2%, and there was a notable rise in Nonfarm Payroll Employment which reached 256,000 from November’s revised figure of 212,000. Job market dynamics showed strength with initial unemployment claims down to 201,000 in early January compared to the prior reading of 211,000. Moreover, November’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey revealed job openings increasing to 8.098 million from an upward revised October figure. However, a challenge is noted in manufacturing with new orders for manufactured goods decreasing by 0.4% in November after a revised increase in October.

The NZDUSD currency pair has been under pressure, decreasing by 0.71% to 0.55540 on Friday, marking its sixth consecutive weekly decline and hitting a three-year low since October 2022. Given the U.S. economic data presented, showing a slight improvement in employment figures but weaknesses in consumer sentiment, this mixed backdrop may continue to influence the NZDUSD pair. If upcoming U.S. economic releases such as the Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index, and Retail Sales— all of which are high-impact events—indicate stronger U.S. economic conditions, the USD might gain further strength. This scenario could continue to pressure the NZDUSD downward, extending its current bearish trend. Conversely, weaker-than-expected results in these upcoming releases may provide some relief to the NZDUSD pair, potentially inducing a consolidation phase after its prolonged decline.

From X (Twitter)

Latest release: GDP decreases 1.0 percent in the September 2024 quarter.https://t.co/Bo3i7DzlVZ pic.twitter.com/8JBU6uNGLj

— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) December 18, 2024

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.71% to 0.56. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-01-10, the pair dropped -1.11% or -62.1 pips lower.

Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.55.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bearish, immediate support level is at 0.55 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 0.54 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 0.57 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below week low of 0.55 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of January, NZDUSD is down by -1.52% or -85.7 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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