USDCHF on Friday rose 0.48% to 0.91642. Week ending 2025-01-10 rose 0.78%. What’s going on.

USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.48%	43.5 Pips
Week 2025-01-10	0.78%	71.1 Pips	January	1.46%	131.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Tue 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)
Thu 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, several key economic events have been reported. The University of Michigan indicated that the U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment slightly fell in January to 73.2 points from December’s 74 points. On the other hand, the Index of Consumer Expectations saw a rise to 3.3% from 3% in the previous month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported significant labor market data: Average Hourly Earnings for December dropped to 0.3% from 0.4% in November, but the 12-month earnings decreased to 3.9% from November’s 4%. The U.S. unemployment rate seeing a slight decrease to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November, coupled with a notable rise in Nonfarm Payroll Employment to 256,000 from November’s revised 212,000, indicates a strengthening job market. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were notably lower, coming in at 201,000 compared to the previous week’s 211,000. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also pointed to increasing job opportunities in November, with openings rising to 8.098 million from a revised figure of 7.744 million. However, U.S. new orders for manufactured goods saw a decline by 0.4% in November following a previously revised October increase.

In Switzerland, according to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the Swiss CPI Inflation Rate saw a slight decline to 0.6% year-on-year in December, transitioning from the 0.7% rise seen in November. Moreover, the CPI Inflation Rate stayed constant month-over-month at -0.1% in December. The retail trade real turnover also saw a dip in November, dropping to 0.8% from October’s revised 1.5%, underscoring a potential slowdown in consumer activity during that period.

The USDCHF currency pair has been trending upwards, achieving an impressive rise of 0.48% to 0.91642 recently, marking a steady ascent of 0.78% for the week ending January 10, 2025. This appreciation of the U.S. Dollar against the Swiss Franc, which soared to an 8-month high, reflects favorable U.S. economic data and a robust job market strengthening investor confidence in the dollar. The upcoming U.S. economic events including the PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors, CPI Inflation Rate, and Monthly Retail Trade could significantly impact USDCHF rates. Strong data releases in these areas are likely to bolster the dollar further against the Swiss Franc, perpetuating the upward trend seen over the past weeks.

From X (Twitter)

Last year average annual inflation in Switzerland was 1.1%, down from 2.1% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2022, the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO) said on Tuesday. #Swiss #Switzerland https://t.co/4pTrp8h5Cs https://t.co/4pTrp8h5Cs

— swissinfo.ch (@swissinfo_en) January 8, 2025

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday rose 0.48% to 0.92. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2025-01-10, the pair rose 0.78% or 71.1 pips higher.

Looking ahead, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.90.

For the new week, our technical outlook looks bullish, immediate upside resistance level at 0.92 (WR1) with break above could target 0.93 (WR2). On the downside, we are looking at week low of 0.90 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.92 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of January, USDCHF is up by 1.46% or 131.8 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories Source: Census Bureau
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 17-18, 2024 Source: Federal Reserve
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, November 2024 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Source: Census Bureau
Swiss Consumer Price Index in December and annual inflation 2024 – Average annual inflation of +1.1% in 2024 Source: Federal Statistical Office