EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.03% | -2.7 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.46% | 47.3 Pips |  |
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| January | -1.08% | -111.9 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
In the United States, December witnessed a decrease in Monthly Retail Trade, falling to 0.4% from the previous 0.7% in November. Despite the overall drop, Retail Trade excluding Automobiles showed an improvement, rising to 0.4% from 0.2% in November, and the Retail Trade Control Group increased to 0.7% compared to the previous month’s 0.4%. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 217K from the prior figure of 201K. On the inflation front, the CPI Inflation Rate increased to 0.4% from November’s 0.3%, while the 12-month CPI Inflation Rate climbed to 2.9% from 2.7%. However, the CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors decreased to 0.2% from 0.3%, and the 12-month rate also declined to 3.2% from November’s 3.3%. Encouragingly, the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey significantly picked up in January, reaching 44.3 points from a revised -10.9 in December.
In Germany, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for December remained unchanged at 2.8% compared to November, with the monthly figure also steady at 0.7%. This suggests a stable inflation environment in the country.
As for the Euro Area, the Industrial Production in November was unchanged at 0.2% month-on-month, indicating a consistency in industrial activity without any acceleration.
Concerning the EURUSD currency pair, it saw a slight decline of 0.03% to 1.02917, indicating consolidation rather than a distinct trend formation. The mixed economic data from both the U.S. and Euro Area may contribute to this consolidation, as market participants digest the U.S.’s better-than-expected manufacturing data juxtaposed against rising inflation. Furthermore, Germany’s stable HICP figures and stagnant Euro Area industrial production do not provide strong support for a decisive move in the currency pair. Consequently, traders may remain cautious and avoid strong directional bets on EURUSD in the absence of major upcoming events or data releases.
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What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Thursday dropped -0.03% to 1.02917. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.0281 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.03015 or trades above daily pivot 1.02913. Break above could target R1 at 1.03019. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.0281 (S1) and daily low of 1.02806 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below 1.02806 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.03228 |
| R2 | 1.03122 |
| R1 | 1.03019 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.02913 |
| S1 | 1.0281 |
| S2 | 1.02704 |
| S3 | 1.02601 |
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