NZDUSD Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.38% | -21.4 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.71% | 39.7 Pips |  |
||
| January | -0.62% | -35.2 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
The United States faced a mixed economic performance in December. The U.S. Monthly Retail Trade decreased to 0.4% from 0.7% in November, indicating a slowing consumer spending momentum. Despite this, when excluding automobiles, retail trade saw a slight improvement from 0.2% to 0.4%, potentially signaling resilience in consumer spending within other categories. The Retail Trade Control Group, however, showed an increase to 0.7% from November’s 0.4%, reflecting positive retail activity in a broader sense.
Unemployment figures also painted a less encouraging picture as Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims increased to 217K from 201K, suggesting possible job market headwinds. In the inflation domain, the overall CPI Inflation Rate rose to 0.4% from 0.3% the previous month, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy, saw a slight decline to 0.2% from 0.3%. On an annual basis, the CPI Inflation Rate increased to 2.9% from 2.7%, with the core 12-month CPI rate slightly decreasing to 3.2% from 3.3%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Manufacturing Business Outlook showed significant recovery, with the index boosting to 44.3 points from -10.9, indicating robust optimism within the manufacturing sector.
The latest U.S. economic data could weigh on the NZDUSD currency pair. The decline in U.S. retail trade highlights potential consumer weakness, which might dampen economic confidence in the USD. However, the uptick in manufacturing optimism and a mild increase in inflation could lend some support to the dollar, as they reflect underlying economic strength and steady pricing power. For NZD, the lack of significant local market-moving events leaves it mainly reactive to the U.S. economic indicators. The mixed data means that no particular story dominates, potentially leading to volatility in NZDUSD as traders weigh the contrast between weaker consumer activity and stronger manufacturing confidence. Ultimately, the pair’s movement may hinge on market interpretation of these mixed signals, possibly inducing range-bound behavior unless further definitive data emerges.
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What can we expect from NZDUSD today?
NZDUSD on Thursday dropped -0.38% to 0.56042. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.
Updated daily direction for NZDUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.55796 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.55551. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.56327 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.55816 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that NZDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.56818 |
| R2 | 0.56573 |
| R1 | 0.56307 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.56062 |
| S1 | 0.55796 |
| S2 | 0.55551 |
| S3 | 0.55285 |
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