USDCHF Analysis
| Performance after Thursday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Thursday | -0.19% | -16.9 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | -0.68% | -61.9 Pips |  |
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| January | 0.81% | 73.4 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
No major events for the day.
What happened lately
In the United States, various economic indicators reflect a mixed picture as of December. Monthly Retail Trade saw a decrease to 0.4% from 0.7% in November, according to the Census Bureau, while retail trade excluding automobiles rose to 0.4% from 0.2% and the retail trade control group increased to 0.7% from 0.4%. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose slightly to 217,000 for the week ending January 11, up from 201,000 in the previous week, according to the Department of Labor. On a positive note, the U.S. Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey for January surged to 44.3 points from a revised -10.9 points in December, reported by Philadelphia Fed.
The inflation data outlined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a rise in the U.S. CPI Inflation Rate to 0.4% in December, up from 0.3% in November, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) fell to 0.2% from 0.3%. The 12-month CPI Inflation Rate showed an upward movement to 2.9% from 2.7%, yet the core 12-month CPI Inflation Rate slightly decreased to 3.2% from 3.3% in November. These figures indicate a growing inflationary trend, albeit moderating somewhat within the core categories.
Turning to currency markets, the USDCHF (U.S. Dollar to Swiss Franc) pair experienced a drop of 0.19% to 0.91058 on Thursday. The currency’s movement is likely influenced by the mixed economic signals from the United States. Despite the bullish Manufacturing Business Outlook and increased headline CPI, the December decline in Monthly Retail Trade and modest increase in unemployment claims suggest a nuanced economic environment. When coupled with core inflation trends displaying limited upward pressure, these dynamics can contribute to a weaker U.S. dollar sentiment against the Swiss franc. As there are no major events scheduled, market participants may primarily focus on broader global economic trends and upcoming U.S. data releases to form future expectations for the USDCHF exchange rate.
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What can we expect from USDCHF today?
USDCHF on Thursday dropped -0.19% to 0.91058. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for USDCHF looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Thursday trading session.
Looking ahead for the day, immediate support level is at S1 0.90894 with break below could see further selling pressure towards S2 at 0.90731. To the upside, with the current momentum bearish, we prefer to look at breakout of the recent daily high of 0.91365 as a potential indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below 0.90966 would indicate selling pressure.
For the week to-date, take note that USDCHF is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.91692 |
| R2 | 0.91529 |
| R1 | 0.91293 |
| Daily Pivot | 0.9113 |
| S1 | 0.90894 |
| S2 | 0.90731 |
| S3 | 0.90495 |
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