AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.3% to 0.61915. Week ending 2025-01-17 rose 0.59%. What happened.

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.3%	-18.8 Pips
Week 2025-01-17	0.59%	36.5 Pips
January	-0.46%	-28.5 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 12:00 AM 2025 U.S. Presidential Inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States
Mon 05:00 AM Martin Luther King Jr. Day

What happened over the week

In the United States, several economic indicators showed mixed performance. Building Permits in December fell to 1.483 million, a slight decline from the previous month. However, Housing Starts rose significantly to 1.499 million, indicating some strength in the construction sector. The U.S. Monthly Retail Trade Growth slowed to 0.4% compared to 0.7% in November. Initial Unemployment Claims also increased to 217,000, reflecting a slight weakening in labor market conditions. There were signs of recovery in manufacturing with the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey improving significantly to 44.3 points in January from a negative territory the previous month. Inflation metrics indicated a mixed bag as well; the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate for December increased to 0.4%, while core inflation excluding food and energy sectors slowed slightly. Additionally, there was an improvement in the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement, reducing the deficit to -$87 billion from -$367 billion in November, showing some fiscal improvement.

In Australia, labor market data showed an increase in the participation rate to 67.1% and unemployment rising to 4% in December from 3.9% previously. The Monthly Employment Change rose to 56.3K, but concerningly, full-time employment fell significantly to -23.7K. These figures indicate a mixed outlook with more people participating in the labor market but fewer holding full-time positions.

The weekly AUDUSD fluctuation saw a drop of -0.3% on Friday to 0.61915, despite a weekly rise of 0.59%. The Australian Dollar initially weakened against the US Dollar due to mixed economic indicators and the overall robustness of the U.S. economic recovery. The dip to its lowest point since April 2020 suggests underlying pressures. However, the Australian dollar ended the week mixed, potentially due to Australian labor market improvement and decreased inflation expectations in the U.S., which could lead to a softer U.S. monetary policy stance in the longer term. The upcoming U.S. political event, Trump’s inauguration, might contribute to further uncertainty, possibly impacting forex markets depending on economic or political reform announcements.

From X (Twitter)

“With employment rising by 56,000 people and the number of unemployed increasing by 10,000 people, the unemployment rate rose to 4.0 per cent," Bjorn Jarvis, ABS head of labour statistics

For more, see https://t.co/v1OivaxqkE pic.twitter.com/Yk3EeQdNe5

— Australian Bureau of Statistics (@ABSStats) January 16, 2025

What can we expect from AUDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

AUDUSD on Friday dropped -0.3% to 0.62. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-01-17, the pair rose 0.59% or 36.5 pips higher.

Looking ahead, AUDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.62.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.62 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.62. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.62 or 0.62 (WS1) as immediate support level. AUDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.62 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of January, AUDUSD is down by -0.46% or -28.5 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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