NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.45% to 0.55826. Week ending 2025-01-17 rose 0.32%. What happened.

NZDUSD Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.45%	-25.5 Pips
Week 2025-01-17	0.32%	17.8 Pips
January	-1.01%	-57.1 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 12:00 AM 2025 U.S. Presidential Inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States
Mon 05:00 AM Martin Luther King Jr. Day
Tue 09:45 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth)

What happened over the week

In the United States, significant economic events reveal a mixed economic performance. Building Permits decreased slightly in December to 1.483 million from November’s revised number. Conversely, Housing Starts picked up momentum, increasing to 1.499 million in the same month. The Monthly Retail Trade, however, witnessed a decline, recording a drop to 0.4% from 0.7% in November. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims slightly increased to 217K in the week ending January 11. Notably, the Manufacturing Business Outlook surged to 44.3 points in January. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed an increase of 0.4%, with the 12-month rate rising to 2.9%. Excluding food and energy, this figure decreased to 0.2%. The Monthly Treasury Budget Statement showed marked improvement in December, indicating a budget deficit of -$87 billion compared to -$367 billion in November. The Producer Price Index (PPI) maintained an even keel when excluding food and energy at 0%. Over 12 months, the PPI excluding these sectors ticked up slightly to 3.5%.

New Zealand saw improvements in business sentiment with the NZIER Business Confidence for the fourth quarter rising to 16% from a previous -1%. This boost in business confidence is a positive indicator for economic recovery and offers implications for monetary policy which could influence the currency strength.

The NZDUSD pair, despite a daily drop of 0.45% on Friday to 0.55826, experienced a weekly gain of 0.32%. It recorded the lowest level since mid-October 2022 but ended a six-week streak of losses as the New Zealand Dollar strengthened against the US Dollar. These fluctuations reflect the mixed economic signals from the U.S. and the emboldened business sentiment from New Zealand. With the CPI Inflation Rate forthcoming in New Zealand, higher figures could boost the NZD further, putting upward pressure on the NZDUSD pair, although geopolitical events like the U.S. Presidential Inauguration might induce volatility. The immediate focus will be on how these cross-country data interpret broader economic narratives, dictating future movements in the forex market.

From X (Twitter)

Latest release: Home consents up 4.8 percent in the month of Novemberhttps://t.co/z070IntGr8 pic.twitter.com/qAdTCM7IyU

— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) January 12, 2025

What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.45% to 0.56. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-01-17, the pair rose 0.32% or 17.8 pips higher.

Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.56.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.57 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.56. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.56 or 0.55 (WS1) as immediate support level. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 0.57 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of January, NZDUSD is down by -1.01% or -57.1 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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