USDCHF on Friday rose 0.4% to 0.91482. Week ending 2025-01-17 moved lower by -0.21%. What happened.

USDCHF Analysis

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.4%	36.5 Pips
Week 2025-01-17	-0.21%	-19.5 Pips
January	1.28%	115.8 Pips

Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)

Mon 12:00 AM 2025 U.S. Presidential Inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States
Mon 05:00 AM Martin Luther King Jr. Day

What happened over the week

In the United States, December saw a mixed bag concerning construction and housing metrics. Building permits slightly decreased from November to December, moving from 1.493 million to 1.483 million. However, Housing Starts saw a robust increase, reaching 1.499 million from a revised November figure of 1.294 million, indicating a stronger start in construction despite fewer permits. Retail trade fell to 0.4% from 0.7% in November, showcasing a slight decline in consumer spending towards the year-end. The labor market showed signs of stress as initial unemployment claims for the week ending January 11 rose to 217,000, from a previous low of 201,000. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing Business Outlook boomed into positive territory in January, climbing to 44.3 points from December’s -10.9 points, suggesting recovering optimism in the sector.

Inflation dynamics were notable with December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Rate rising to 0.4% from the previous 0.3% in November but the core CPI, excluding food and energy sectors, fell to 0.2% from 0.3%. Annually, CPI inflation was up to 2.9% from 2.7%, and core 12-month CPI dipped slightly to 3.2% from 3.3%. Producer Price Index (PPI) trends were mixed, with monthly rates decreasing to 0.2% from 0.4%, but the 12-month PPI rose to 3.3%, reflecting rising costs. Excluding food and energy, the 12-month PPI ticked higher to 3.5%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in production costs.

On the fiscal front, the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement showed significant improvement, shrinking to a deficit of $87 billion from $367 billion, indicating a cautious but noteworthy reduction in the budgetary shortfall.

The USDCHF pair rose by 0.4% to 0.91482 on Friday, achieving its highest level since May 2024, but later eased slightly for the week, marking a halt to the prolonged uptrend. This fluctuation reflects the interplay between mixed economic data from the U.S. and anticipation around scheduled political events. The approaching U.S. Presidential Inauguration is likely injecting volatility and uncertainty among investors, potentially affecting market sentiment and reinforcing caution around further USDCHF movements. Given the nuances in the U.S. economic data and impending political transitions, this temporary dip may not necessarily dictate a sustained trend reversal unless accompanied by broader economic or policy shifts.

From X (Twitter)

Last year average annual inflation in Switzerland was 1.1%, down from 2.1% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2022, the Swiss Federal Statistical Office (FSO) said on Tuesday. #Swiss #Switzerland https://t.co/4pTrp8h5Cs https://t.co/4pTrp8h5Cs

— swissinfo.ch (@swissinfo_en) January 8, 2025

What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?

USDCHF on Friday rose 0.4% to 0.91. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2025-01-17, the pair dropped -0.21% or -19.5 pips lower.

Looking ahead, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.91.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.92 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.91. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.91 or 0.91 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.91 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of January, USDCHF is up by 1.28% or 115.8 pips higher.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Minutes of the Board’s discount rate meetings on November 18, December 9, and December 18, 2024 Source: Federal Reserve