EURUSD Analysis
| Performance after Monday | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Monday | 0.1% | 10.9 Pips |  |
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| Week to-date | 0.22% | 23 Pips | |
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| January | 0.81% | 84.7 Pips | |
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Upcoming key events (London Time)
Tue 09:00 AM EUR Euro area Bank Lending Survey Tue 05:00 PM EUR European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde speech 
Wed 07:00 PM USD Fed Interest Rate Decision (Federal Funds Rate)
What happened lately
In December, the United States saw an increase in new-home sales by 3.6%, which marked a slowdown compared to the 5.9% growth observed in November. This deceleration in growth could be indicative of fluctuations in demand or shifts in economic conditions, possibly influenced by interest rates and consumer confidence. Nonetheless, the continued rise in new-home sales reflects a persistent interest in the housing market, albeit at a reduced growth rate. Such growth data is likely to inform economic decision-makers of trends in the housing sector, potentially influencing broader economic policies.
In Germany, the ifo business confidence indicators presented a mixed picture for January. The ifo Expectations index saw a marginal decrease to 84.2 points from 84.4 points in December, suggesting a slight decline in business optimism regarding future economic conditions. On the other hand, the ifo Business Climate Index improved to 85.1 points from 84.7 points, indicating a more favorable assessment of the current business environment. Moreover, the ifo Current Assessment index increased to 86.1 points, reflecting enhanced confidence in the ongoing economic situation. These conflicting signals highlight a complex economic landscape where businesses remain cautiously optimistic, balancing between present economic robustness and uncertainties on future performance.
Regarding the EURUSD currency pair, the data indicate a consolidation phase with the pair experiencing a slight rise by 0.1% to 1.04909. The mixed economic indicators from Germany and slightly subdued growth in U.S. housing sales suggest a period of stability in the exchange rate, as market participants weigh potential influences on the currency pair. Upcoming events such as the Euro area Bank Lending Survey and the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech could provide further insights or catalysts for movement in the EURUSD rate. Likewise, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision is another key event with the potential to impact the currency pair significantly, depending on the outcomes that reflect monetary policy directions and interest rate adjustments. In this consolidation phase, traders and investors will be attentive to these forthcoming announcements for indications that could prompt adjustments in market positioning.
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What can we expect from EURUSD today?
EURUSD on Monday rose 0.1% to 1.04909. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling.
Updated daily direction for EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above 1.04519 (S1).
Looking ahead today, to see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last daily high of 1.05334 or trades above daily pivot 1.04926. Break above could target R1 at 1.05317. While to the downside, we are looking at 1.04519 (S1) and daily low of 1.04536 as support levels. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.05334 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.
For the week to-date, take note that EURUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.
Key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 1.06115 |
| R2 | 1.05724 |
| R1 | 1.05317 |
| Daily Pivot | 1.04926 |
| S1 | 1.04519 |
| S2 | 1.04128 |
| S3 | 1.03721 |
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