NZDUSD Analysis
| Week Ending 2025-01-31 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | -0.04% | -2.2 Pips |  |
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| Week 2025-01-31 | -1.02% | -58.1 Pips | |
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| January | -0.1% | -5.5 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Tue 09:45 PM Employment Change 
Wed 04:00 PM Waitangi Day 
Fri 01:30 PM Nonfarm Payroll Employment
What happened over the week
In the U.S., various economic indicators showed mixed results for December as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The PCE Price Index excluding food and energy remained stable on an annual basis at 2.8%, while monthly increments rose to 0.2% from 0.1% in November. Consumer spending witnessed a significant boost, increasing by 0.7% compared to 0.4% in the previous month. The annual PCE Price Index rose to 2.6% from 2.4%. Personal income also saw an increase to 0.4% from 0.3%. The overall PCE Price Index was higher compared to previous periods. The Employment Cost Index noted a marginal increase to 0.9% in the fourth quarter. However, the flash estimate for GDP showed a decrease to an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, down from 3.1% in the third quarter. Despite these developments, the U.S. Federal Reserve kept the Federal Funds Rate unchanged at 4.5%. Additionally, durable goods orders showed declines in multiple categories, which could signify a slowing in manufacturing demand.
For New Zealand, positive outcomes were observed in trade figures as reported by Stats NZ. Exports increased to $6.84 billion in December, up from $6.48 billion in November. Imports decreased to $6.62 billion from a revised $6.85 billion in the previous month. Consequently, New Zealand’s trade balance improved from -$8.26 billion to -$7.67 billion. Such improvements in trade figures could suggest an enhancement in economic activity and international demand for New Zealand’s goods. These developments favorably impact New Zealand’s economic standing with a reduced trade deficit, potentially reflecting positively on its currency strength in the global market.
The NZDUSD pair saw a decline of -0.04% on a particular Friday, and a weekly decrease of -1.02%, ending a two-week upward streak. This downward movement may have been influenced by favorable U.S. economic data, especially the rise in consumer spending and income, which strengthened the U.S. dollar. In contrast, while New Zealand showed positive trade balance figures, they may not have been substantial enough to offset the strengthening dollar. Additionally, upcoming high-impact events like the U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment could further influence this currency pair. Meanwhile, anticipated New Zealand events such as Employment Change could also sway market sentiment and influence NZDUSD movements in the near term.
From X (Twitter)
Latest release: US now New Zealand’s second largest export partnerhttps://t.co/VfHGzNmaJG pic.twitter.com/RhppA9CkTk
— Stats NZ (@Stats_NZ) January 29, 2025
What can we expect from NZDUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?
NZDUSD on Friday dropped -0.04% to 0.56. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling. For the week ending 2025-01-31, the pair dropped -1.02% or -58.1 pips lower.
Looking ahead, NZDUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.56.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.57 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.56. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.56 or 0.56 (WS1) as immediate support level. NZDUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.56 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of January, NZDUSD is down by -0.1% or -5.5 pips lower.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.57 |
| R2 | 0.57 |
| R1 | 0.57 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.56 |
| S1 | 0.56 |
| S2 | 0.56 |
| S3 | 0.55 |
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