Audusd rises as mixed Australian economic data offers cautious optimism

AUDUSD Analysis

Performance after Monday
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Monday	1.5%	92 Pips
Week to-date	1.49%	91.2 Pips
February	0.1%	6.4 Pips

Upcoming key events (London Time)

No major events for the day.

What happened lately

Australia’s economic data reveals a mixed but slightly positive trend for the country’s economic activities. The retail trade for the third quarter has shown an increase, advancing from 0.5% in the previous quarter to 1%. This indicates a stronger consumer spending contribution to the economy, demonstrating resilience despite prevailing economic challenges. However, the seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover saw a drop to -0.1% in December from November’s 0.8%. This decline might reflect reduced consumer spending towards the end of the year, possibly due to consumer caution or seasonal factors impacting retail sales. Yet, the building approvals data shows a promising upturn, with approvals increasing by 0.7% in December after a significant decline of 3.6% in November. This improvement in building approvals points to a potentially robust construction sector in the upcoming months.

The recent data suggests mixed implications for the AUDUSD exchange rate. While the increase in building approvals and retail trade in the third quarter can be positive indicators of economic growth, the decline in December’s retail turnover may temper this optimism. The notable rise of 1.5% of AUDUSD to 0.62215 suggests stronger confidence or demand for the Australian dollar, potentially stimulated by the earlier positive economic signals or external factors affecting currency markets. The upward trend in AUDUSD indicates that investors might be encouraged by Australia’s longer-term economic resilience, despite short-term fluctuations. Absent major upcoming economic events, the market’s attention might remain on Australia’s economic indicators for future currency movement signals. Continued monitoring of domestic and international economic conditions will be crucial for anticipating future developments in the AUDUSD exchange rate.

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What can we expect from AUDUSD today?

AUDUSD on Monday rose 1.5% to 0.62215. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising.

Updated daily direction for AUDUSD looks bullish as the pair ended higher after Monday trading session.

Looking ahead for the day, immediate upside resistance level is R1 at 0.62768 with break above could target R2 at 0.63322 or figure level area. While towards the downside, we are looking at daily low of 0.60873 as an important support. Break below this level could weaken the current bullish momentum. A break above 0.62374 may suggest continuation after recent positive movement.

For the week to-date, take note that AUDUSD is mixed as compared to the prior week.

Key levels to watch out:

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