USDCHF Analysis
| Week Ending 2025-02-07 | |||
| Open | High | Low | Close |
| 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.91 |
| Performance | |||||
| Period | Pct | Chg | Momentum | ||
| Friday | 0.53% | 47.9 Pips |  |
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| Week 2025-02-07 | -0.58% | -53.4 Pips | |
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| February | 0.06% | 5.2 Pips |  |
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Upcoming key events for the new week (London Time)
Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) Wed 01:30 PM CPI Inflation Rate excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) Wed 03:00 PM Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies
Thu 07:30 AM Swiss CPI Inflation Rate (12-mth) Thu 01:30 PM PPI excluding Food and Energy sectors (12-mth) Fri 01:30 PM Monthly Retail Trade (1-mth)
What happened over the week
The United States saw a slight improvement in its labor market as the unemployment rate decreased to 4% in January from 4.1% the previous month. Wage growth showed positive signs, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.5% month-on-month and 4.1% year-on-year, indicating higher consumer spending power. However, there was a decline in nonfarm payroll employment which dropped significantly to 143K, indicating that gains in employment were not as robust as anticipated. The U-6 Total, capturing comprehensive labor underutilization, remained constant at 7.5%. Unit labor costs in the fourth quarter rose sharply to 3%, reflecting increased business expenses, while labor productivity fell, suggesting that efficiency gains were not keeping pace with cost increases. Job openings, as reported by the JOLTS survey, markedly decreased to 7.6 million in December, signifying rising caution among employers to expand their workforce due to uncertain economic conditions. Additionally, new orders for manufactured goods declined further by 0.9% in December, bringing concerns over manufacturing sector demand.
The movements in the USDCHF pair have been reflective of broader market perception of the U.S. economic situation. The pair rose by 0.53% to close at 0.90989, although it experienced a slight depreciation of 0.58% over the week. The dollar’s volatility and subsequent retreat after hitting a three-week high could be attributed to mixed economic data releases from the U.S., which create divergent opinions on the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy stance. The upcoming U.S. CPI inflation rate reports and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony will be pivotal in shaping market expectations. Strong inflation readings could lead to the anticipation of monetary tightening by the Fed, potentially strengthening the USD, thus impacting the USDCHF pair. Conversely, if inflationary pressures subside, the CHF might strengthen against the USD, reflecting market confidence in Swiss economic resilience and lower expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes. Overall, USDCHF fluctuations will largely be influenced by the perception of economic recovery and central bank policy direction in the coming days.
From X (Twitter)
Nel 2024, in Svizzera si annoverano 535 #automobili ogni 1000 abitanti. Questa cifra è pressoché stabile da 10 anni. Nei Cantoni urbani il livello di motorizzazione è talora in calo. #Mobilità #Trasporti #StatSvizzerahttps://t.co/1IfoJeyYLd pic.twitter.com/4hNKgMV7uG
— BFS | OFS | UST | FSO (@StatDataCH) January 30, 2025
What can we expect from USDCHF for the new week and what happened on Friday?
USDCHF on Friday rose 0.53% to 0.91. Price is above 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is rising. For the week ending 2025-02-07, the pair dropped -0.58% or -53.4 pips lower.
Looking ahead, USDCHF looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 0.90.
For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of week high of 0.91 or at least consolidates above Weekly Pivot level of 0.91. On the downside, we are looking at week low 0.90 or 0.90 (WS1) as immediate support level. USDCHF need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A close below week low of 0.90 would indicate selling pressure.
For the month of February, USDCHF is up by 0.06% or 5.2 pips higher.
Weekly key levels to watch out:
| R3 | 0.93 |
| R2 | 0.92 |
| R1 | 0.92 |
| Weekly Pivot | 0.91 |
| S1 | 0.90 |
| S2 | 0.90 |
| S3 | 0.89 |
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